By: Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Sunday evening, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been very quiet relatively speaking and compared to recent years. The strengthening El Niño has played a big role in squelching tropical activity, especially in the main development region of the Atlantic basin.
September 10 is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and at this time there are no tropical features out in the basin to monitor and today’s National Hurricane Center outlook shows no expected development within the next seven days.
We have posted below a map of today’s European model, and you can see clearly the amount of shear that is dominating the Caribbean and the open Atlantic. Westerly shear between 30-50 knots it totally preventing anything exiting the coast of Africa from developing.
The best chance of any development in the entire Atlantic basin is off the southeast coast of the United States and in the northern Gulf , as the windshear is not as prevalent as it is further south. Thankfully, there are no current disturbances that could take advantage of the more favorable atmospheric conditions.
So far this hurricane season we have had five named storms but no system to reach hurricane strength. This is significant as 2026 is now inside the top five of years to go so late without a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. If the current seven day forecast holds firm, then 2026 will establish a new record as going the latest without a hurricane. Given how recent years has provided numerous rapid intensification episodes, the lack of strong tropical systems this season is astounding.
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