Foothills Weather Network 2026–2027 Winter Outlook

We are forecasting a wetter winter across western North Carolina, with above-average snowfall and an elevated risk of freezing rain across much of the Blue Ridge escarpment, foothills, and northwest Piedmont. Our 2026–2027 Winter Outlook favors near-normal temperatures in the mountains and western foothills, with a slightly warmer lean farther east when December through February are averaged together. Even with that warmer lean, we see opportunities for impactful winter weather when cold air and an active southern storm track come together.

For our coverage area of Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, McDowell, Polk, and Rutherford counties, the timing of those ingredients will make the difference. We can have several mild, rainy stretches and still finish with above-average snowfall if a few storms arrive while cold air is in place. A seasonal average smooths out those swings, but most of us will remember the individual storms.

Our outlook is presented by Four Seasons Property Maintenance and Brandon Mason. We appreciate their support of Foothills Weather Network and the work we do to keep our communities informed.

Our forecast is built on the strong El Niño pattern outlined in our outlook package. Warmer water across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific can influence the atmosphere well beyond the tropics, favoring a stronger southern jet stream and a more active storm track across the southern United States. For western North Carolina, that gives us more opportunities for moisture. Whether that moisture falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain depends on the storm track and the depth and placement of cold air.

That distinction matters in a strong El Niño setup. A storm moving inland to our west can bring warmer air into the region and produce mainly rain. A system traveling farther south and then toward the Carolina coast can give us a better opportunity for wintry precipitation, provided cold air is established beforehand. We favor enough of those overlaps to support an above-average snowfall forecast, while recognizing that some storms will bring cold rain.

We are also watching the possibility of an unusually early warming event high in the stratosphere. A substantial warming can weaken or disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex and potentially influence the weather pattern below over the following weeks. The uncertainty is where displaced cold air would go and whether that change would work its way down into the part of the atmosphere that controls our daily weather. It gives us a reason to watch for a colder pattern developing, but it cannot tell us when a snowstorm will occur in the foothills.

Snow cover is another part of our thinking. Our outlook materials show above-normal coverage across substantial portions of central and eastern Siberia, which can help support a developing cold reservoir. At the same time, the late-October snapshot in our package places total Northern Hemisphere snow cover at about 86 percent of normal. Those two observations can coexist because regional snow coverage and the hemisphere-wide total describe different areas. For our forecast, we are interested in both the availability of cold air and the circulation needed to bring it into eastern North America.

Western Pacific typhoon tracks also deserve attention. When tropical systems turn north and northeast into the midlatitude flow, their interaction with the Pacific jet can help reshape the downstream pattern. Under the right circumstances, that can support a ridge over western North America and a trough farther east, opening a route for colder air toward our region. The response depends on the surrounding pattern, so we treat those tracks as clues rather than a direct prediction of local snow.

The colder scenario shown in our graphics combines a western ridge, often associated with a positive Pacific–North American pattern, with blocking near Greenland, associated with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. If those features develop in favorable positions, they can help direct cold air into the eastern United States while storms continue along the southern jet. We are watching for periods when that configuration develops. Its strength and placement will matter, since a storm can also be pushed too far south to bring meaningful precipitation into our area.

For December, we are forecasting near-normal temperatures across the region and well-above-normal precipitation. We expect an active start to meteorological winter, with the potential for repeated storm systems. Near-normal still leaves room for both mild spells and colder periods. Our winter-weather opportunities will depend on whether those colder periods coincide with incoming moisture, especially across the lower elevations where temperatures are often marginal.

January brings a more pronounced temperature difference across the region. Our forecast favors below-normal temperatures in the higher mountains, near-normal temperatures across much of the western and northern foothills, and above-normal temperatures toward the southern and eastern Piedmont. That places communities around Marion, Morganton, and Lenoir closer to the transition between colder mountain conditions and the warmer tendency farther southeast. The boundaries on our maps represent broad forecast zones; temperatures and precipitation types will vary with each storm.

Our January precipitation outlook favors near-normal totals across much of the mountains and northwestern portion of the region, with a below-normal area farther northwest and above-normal precipitation across the southern and eastern areas. January is therefore less uniformly wet in our forecast than December or February. Even so, one well-timed storm could contribute a substantial portion of a community’s seasonal snowfall.

For February, we favor near-normal temperatures along much of the mountain corridor and above-normal temperatures across the foothills and Piedmont. We are also forecasting well-above-normal precipitation throughout the region. That combination supports another active month with plenty of moisture, though cold-air availability becomes especially important outside the mountains. A warmer monthly average still allows a brief period of snow or ice if a storm encounters an established cold air mass.

When we combine December, January, and February, our temperature forecast is near normal across the mountains and western foothills, then slightly above normal across the eastern foothills and Piedmont. Our precipitation forecast is above normal in the mountains and northwestern areas, with well-above-normal totals favored farther south and east. Precipitation includes rain and the liquid equivalent of melted snow and ice, so the wet outlook should not be read as a forecast that every storm will produce snow.

Our snowfall outlook calls for 150 percent of average across much of the higher mountain zone, 350 percent of average across a broad portion of the escarpment and western foothills, and 500 percent of average across parts of the eastern foothills and Piedmont. A smaller area on the far northwestern edge of the map is at 125 percent of average. The larger percentages east of the mountains reflect the lower snowfall averages there. Mountain communities can receive much more snow in inches while still showing a smaller percentage departure from normal.

The calculation multiplies the seasonal average by the forecast percentage, expressed as a multiplier. For example, 500 percent of average means five times the average snowfall. Using the averages in our outlook, Hickory’s 3.1 inches becomes a seasonal projection of 15.5 inches. Blowing Rock’s 38-inch average, multiplied by 150 percent, produces 57 inches. These are season-long projections; the decimal places come from the calculation and should not be taken as that level of forecast precision.

These totals represent an ambitious snowfall forecast, particularly in the foothills and Piedmont. Reaching them will require cold air and moisture to overlap during enough of our storm opportunities. If cold air repeatedly arrives after precipitation ends, or systems track too far inland and bring warmer air overhead, totals will fall short. A few productive storms could account for much of the seasonal accumulation, so we are not forecasting evenly spaced snow events through the winter.

Freezing rain is a separate concern in this outlook. We have highlighted an elevated seasonal risk across much of the eastern escarpment and adjoining foothills, including the corridor around Marion, Morganton, Lenoir, Hickory, Taylorsville, Newton, and Lincolnton. The elevated area also extends into portions of the southern escarpment. Areas outside that shading retain their typical seasonal risk, including the possibility of an ice event.

Our concern centers on cold-air damming. Cold, dense air can settle against the eastern side of the Blue Ridge and remain trapped near the ground while warmer, moisture-bearing air moves over it. Snow falling from clouds can melt in that warmer layer and reach the surface as rain. If exposed surfaces remain below freezing, that rain can freeze on contact. The depth of the cold layer, temperatures aloft, and how long precipitation lasts will determine whether a particular setup produces snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain.

An active southern storm track can bring moisture over a shallow wedge of cold air, so ice deserves attention alongside snow this winter. Our elevated-risk map expresses a seasonal concern. It does not assign an ice accumulation, a probability of exceeding a quarter inch, or a date for a particular storm. Those details require a much closer look as individual systems develop.

We see a winter with frequent precipitation chances and enough cold-air interruptions to support above-average snowfall. We’re more confident in the broad wet pattern than in precise snowfall totals for individual communities. Blocking patterns, the response to any stratospheric warming, and each storm’s track will determine how much of that potential is realized here at home.

As winter approaches, we will watch whether the cold air supply and southern storm track come together as this outlook anticipates. We encourage everyone across the mountains, foothills, and northwest Piedmont to prepare for both snow and freezing rain. We will work with you through the timing, precipitation types, and local impacts as each threat comes into focus.