It’s another active weather day across the Foothills and western North Carolina, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on both the severe weather and heavy rain potential through Monday. While, again, not everyone will experience severe storms, the atmosphere is becoming more favorable for storms capable of producing damaging winds, along with torrential rainfall that could quickly lead to localized flooding.

Today’s setup is a little more concerning than what we’ve seen over the past couple of days.

A backdoor cold front will slowly push southwest into the Carolinas this afternoon while an upper-level disturbance drops south through the Tennessee Valley. As sunshine breaks through this morning, temperatures will climb quickly and allow the atmosphere to become increasingly unstable. Forecast soundings indicate around 2,000 J/kg of instability, which is more than enough fuel for thunderstorms to intensify.

What makes today’s environment different is the increase in wind shear. Winds several thousand feet above the ground will be stronger than they’ve been recently, allowing storms to organize more efficiently instead of remaining short-lived pulse storms. That combination of instability and improving shear supports the Storm Prediction Center’s Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for much of the Foothills and Piedmont this afternoon and evening.

The primary severe weather threat will be damaging straight-line winds, although frequent lightning, torrential rainfall, and a few pockets of hail can’t be ruled out. Storms will become numerous during the afternoon and continue into the evening before gradually weakening overnight.

Heavy rainfall is also becoming an increasing concern. The atmosphere remains exceptionally moisture-rich, with tropical-level moisture in place. As winds turn easterly tonight, they’ll force additional moisture up the eastern slopes of the mountains, enhancing rainfall rates. Some storms may repeatedly move over the same locations, creating a risk for localized flash flooding—especially in areas that have already received several inches of rain over the past few days. If you live near creeks, streams, or in flood-prone locations, remain alert for rapidly changing conditions.

The unsettled pattern doesn’t end today.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain likely on Monday as cool easterly flow settles into the region. The severe weather threat should decrease as instability becomes much weaker, but periods of heavy rain will still be possible. The biggest story Monday and Tuesday may actually be the temperatures. Afternoon highs will run 10 to 15 degrees below average, making it feel much more like early fall than the middle of July thanks to persistent clouds, showers, and cool northeast winds.

By the middle of the week, the weather pattern begins to shift once again. High pressure building over the Plains will gradually allow warmer air to return to the Carolinas. Temperatures will climb back toward seasonal levels by late week, and we’ll transition back into a more typical summertime pattern featuring scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains with isolated activity drifting into the Foothills.

What we’re watching today:

• Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across much of the Foothills and Piedmont.
• Primary threat: Damaging wind gusts.
• Secondary threats: Frequent lightning, localized hail, and torrential rainfall.
• Localized flash flooding remains possible where storms repeatedly track over the same areas.
• Storms become most numerous from mid-afternoon through this evening.

If you have outdoor plans today, keep a close eye on the radar and have multiple ways to receive warnings. Conditions can change quickly once storms begin to develop. Stay weather aware.