Stormy Pattern Continues: Damaging Wind Threat Today, Flooding Risk Increases Early Next Week

If you’ve been hoping for a break from the daily thunderstorms, you’re going to have to wait a little longer. The atmosphere will remain active through at least Monday, bringing daily opportunities for strong to severe thunderstorms along with an increasing threat for localized flash flooding. The good news is that the heat we’ve been dealing with is about to ease, with temperatures dropping to below normal by Monday before a more typical summer pattern returns later next week.

Today’s Severe Weather Setup

Today will be another one of those days where the atmosphere doesn’t need perfect conditions to produce severe weather.

While thunderstorms moved through this morning, temporarily capping the atmosphere and keeping the surface cooler, additional clusters of storms over Tennessee and Kentucky continue moving east and southeast. We believe that the Foothills and Piedmont should have time to recover and become moderately unstable. That should allow temperatures to climb, instability to build, and set the stage for another active afternoon across the entire area.

One thing FHWXN will be watching closely is the leftover outflow boundaries and any small-scale disturbances, known as MCVs (Mesoscale Convective Vortices), left behind by this morning’s storms. These often become the spark that ignites new thunderstorms during the afternoon.

While upper-level wind shear isn’t particularly impressive, there is enough low-level shear—around 15 to 20 knots—to help storms organize into clusters rather than remaining isolated. Those clusters can develop stronger cold pools, increasing the potential for damaging downburst winds as they move across the Foothills.

Another ingredient working in our favor for storm development is the very moist atmosphere. Once storms develop, they’ll have plenty of fuel to produce torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts.

Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Damaging Winds

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of western North Carolina, including the Foothills, under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today (as seen at the top of the discussion).

The main hazard will be damaging straight-line winds, especially if storms organize into clusters or short line segments during the afternoon and evening. Wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph could bring down trees, power lines, and cause scattered power outages. While an isolated hail report can’t be ruled out, wind remains the primary concern.

Flash Flooding Becoming a Bigger Concern

The severe weather threat continues Sunday, but our attention is beginning to shift more toward heavy rainfall.

An upper-level low will slowly settle into the Tennessee Valley while a backdoor cold front pushes into the Carolinas from the northeast late Sunday into Monday. That combination will slow storm movement considerably and could allow thunderstorms to repeatedly move over the same locations.

With tropical moisture remaining in place, enhanced lift from the rippling of vorticity (lower pressure/lift) rotating across the area, and rainfall rates capable of exceeding an inch per hour, localized flash flooding becomes increasingly likely where storms train over the same areas. The mountains remain the most vulnerable, but any location could experience flooding if multiple storms move through.

Much Cooler Air Arrives

The payoff for all of this unsettled weather will be a noticeable cooldown.

Cloud cover, rain, and northeast winds behind the front will hold temperatures well below normal by Monday. After weeks of persistent heat and humidity, it will actually feel surprisingly comfortable for mid-July.

Looking Ahead

The unsettled pattern finally begins to relax during the middle of next week. We’ll transition back to a more typical summertime setup, with afternoon and evening thunderstorms becoming less widespread and temperatures gradually climbing back to near-seasonal levels.

Bottom Line

• Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening again.
• A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) is in place for severe weather, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.
• Storms may develop in multiple rounds today as boundaries left behind by morning activity interact with afternoon heating.
• Flash flooding becomes a greater concern Sunday into Monday as storms slow down and repeatedly move over the same areas.
• A refreshing cooldown arrives Monday before warmer, more typical summer weather returns later next week.