Good Monday afternoon,
Tropical Storm Francine has formed as of the 11 am advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Overnight, Francine has developed a more developed circulation with abundant thunderstorms firing near the formed center.
National Hurricane Center forecast has Francine moving north and then northeast toward the coast of Louisiana by Wednesday evening. The current forecast is for the storm to become a hurricane, some rapid intensification cannot be ruled out on Tuesday but not officially forecasted as of the 11 am advisory.
Francine will push a lot of tropical moisture into the Southeast US this week and in tandem with other weather features, we could quickly transition into a cloudier, wet pattern by late in the work week. The Mid-South region of West Tennessee southward to Louisiana will feel the more direct impacts but even here in the Western Carolinas, moisture will be on the increase.
Lookin at the flow at 5,000 ft, Francine will be moving inland Wednesday night, meanwhile a large area of high pressure over New England will bring easterly winds in off the Atlantic into the Carolinas. This is going to be the beginning of a prolonged easterly fetch of winds.
By Friday morning, Francine was be positioned along the Mississippi River, not far from Memphis and meandering through that general region as the high pressure over New England is blocking Francine from moving.
At this juncture, Francine along with continued southeast fetch into the Carolinas will yield clouds and rain chances, especially given the upslope orientation of the wind pattern.
All indications point to Francine being trapped over the weekend while the anticyclone over New England becomes stronger, which is anything will enhance the easterly fetch.
The Bottom Line…
The comfortable, fall-like weather we are seeing here in the Carolinas today looks to be on borrowed time as the weather pattern will become quite complex by late week. There is going to be available moisture in the atmosphere to bring rainy weather back to the Western Carolinas but specifics as to who sees rain and how much is still up in the air and it may take help from short range models (60-72 hours out) to ultimately nail that down.
Weather Prediction Center’s 7-Day precipitation forecast is showing the possible effects of upslope rains by this weekend.
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