Good Wednesday afternoon to everyone,
After having an extended period of calm weather across North Carolinas, things are in the process of changing and we look to be entering into an extended period of unsettled weather across our local area and all of the Southeast US. Hurricane Francine in on approach to the Louisiana Coastline and will make landfall later today. That along with an old frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast will translate northeast. High clouds will increase here by tonight and thicken on Thursday as Francine moves inland.
Once the moisture field from Francine moves inland tomorrow, we are going to see moisture hanging out for quite a while as a blocking pattern over New England will stop everything in its tracks. While western North Carolina will not see direct impact from Francine its the combined easterly fetch that will allow some upslope precipitation to form occasionally and when its not raining, sunshine will be very limited.
Friday and Saturday continues to be the most active timeframe for rain showers (occasionally heavy). Given the block to our northeast, there will be a tight precip gradient setting up across North Carolina but all indications show that our coverage area will see some rainfall through Saturday. Best area for heavier totals at this time looks to be in a line from Jonas Ridge (Burke County) southwest to Saluda (Polk County).
By Sunday, Francine will dissipate but attention will turn to off the Carolina Coastline as global models and ensembles are becoming bullish on the idea of low pressure developing this weekend. The weakness left behind from Francine combined with blocking over New England suggests that any development off the Carolina coast could get pulled toward the coastline early next week.
National Hurricane Center is now highlighting the area for tropical development…
The Bottom Line…
The extended nice, sunny weather is coming to an end across North Carolina, moisture will increase this weekend leading to periods of wet conditions. Given the relatively dry conditions in place, there should be no significant flood concerns through Sunday.
Attention will then shift to the coastline to see if additional rain chances are on the horizon for early next week.