Good Friday Night to everyone across the foothills. Most will.likely read this Saturday Morning, so good Saturday Morning to you.
No weather worries for Saturday. We will start the day off very comfortable for early June standards. Clear skies and temperatures in the mid and upper 50’s for all of the early birds. Those visiting from Florida may need a jacket. The humidity will be very low making it feel refreshingly, well, refreshing! Enjoy it because things start to change Saturday Afternoon.
That change coming to the forecast Saturday Afternoon is thanks to a slowly advancing cold front that is dropping southeast into the upper midwest tonight. Along that front, an organized cluster of thunderstorms is developing. Anytime we have a northwest flow aloft (20-30k ft aloft) in late May and early June, it signals the chance for these clusters of storms that are called Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) to divebomb us from the Midwest and Ohio Valley. These thunderstorms develop into their own weather system with a mesoscale low pressure system that develops. These small weather systems can be very difficult to predict over 12 hours out, so forecast confidence remains on the lower side of medium.
The first MCS is developing tonight across Kansas. This MCS will move Southesst away from the front. Locally, high pressure will gradually shift east off the coast but our area should be much to stable to sustain an MCS across the mountains Saturday Evening. Expect clouds to increase Saturday after lunchtime. A few showers are possible later Saturday Afternoon and Evening but right now, with the high pressure still influencing our weather at the time, expect most of the showers to skirt by to the North.
The second MCS upstream on the train tracks should already be developing across the upper midwest Saturday Evening as what is left of the first one passes over our area. A lot of differences in the first MCS and the second one. Sunday Morning Western NC should wake up to mainly cloudy skies and a noticeable increase in humidity and temperatures. There could also be some left over showers. This could all influence how impactful the second MCS is. The frontal boundary will still be well west of the Carolina’s Sunday which means the best lift will be west of us too. With potential cloud cover and isolated showers Sunday Morning, our atmosphere will remain faulty stable. We are going to need daytime heating for an MCS to remain intact and move through our area Sunday Evening. If cloud cover hangs on longer, the chances for strong storms Sunday Evening goes down. Models currently indicate that clouds could start to burn off lat Sunday Morning, or close to Noon. If this occurs, we should see a good four to six hours of heating before that next MCS arrives. This amount of heating would produce enough thunderstorm energy that strong and severe storms would be possible late Sunday Evening. Monitor forecasts and changes over the next 24 hours.
The third and final MCS could develop along the approaching front Monday Morning predawn. The front should have enough instability and dynamics with it that another organized round of thunderstorms could develop over East Tennessee and Western North Carolina Monday Morning. Stay tuned.
Now onto the tropics. The cloud front will pass though our area Monday and push south and east. A cluster of disorganized thunderstorms over Cuba and Yucantán could organize by Tuesday and start to spread impacts along the Gulf Coast by Wednesday. Interests anywhere from Texas to Florida should watch this closely. Though models currently indicate potential development, I encourage you not to pay too much attention to strength forecasts yet. The strength of the storm will guide the storm. The stronger the storm becomes, the further east it will come. The weaker the storm, the further West it will go. Either way models are back and forth on potential Alberto making it inland and having impacts to Western North Carolina. Again, stay tuned to see what happens here,
We will talk soon! Have a good night
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