Warm and Unsettled. That Is The Weather Pattern For The Week Ahead

Hey there! Let us get you caught up on what’s happening with todays forecast update! 

Some upper-level shortwave energy off the coast of South Carolina that’s going to deepen and possibly close off on Monday morning. A surface low will develop on a stationary front just offshore and move north towards the Outer Banks, while weak ridging persists across the forecast area. Expect foggy conditions to develop across the area Sunday Morning but that fog will burn off and partly cloudy skies will develop.  This should lead to temperatures getting up to around 70 degrees.

We can expect mostly cloudy skies on Monday morning with possibly some isolated light and shallow showers, but nothing too significant. As the day progresses, the skies will become partly cloudy, and rainfall chances will drop to near zero. However, temperatures will reach near or just above 70 for the foothills and the Piedmont. 

Moving on to Tuesday, the coastal low will move into Delmarva as the next system approaches from the west. We can expect slight chances of rain returning to the western portions of the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with chances gradually increasing from west to east through the day.  

Through Tuesday, total rainfall amounts will remain light in advance of the main system. Expect highs on Tuesday to reach the lower 70s east of the mountains, which is about 10-12 degrees above normal. On Wednesday, the surface low will move to the south of I-85, and chances of rain increase agin overnight Tuesday through Wednesday, maxing out Wednesday afternoon as the system moves across the Carolinas. 

Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts are likely with isolated heavier totals possible, especially along and just north of the surface front/low pressure track. These amounts and rates are not significant enough to suggest a notable flood risk.  Right now I will keep thunderstorm chances out of the forecast but it needs to be watched. 

Moving on to the end of the week, rain chances decrease Wednesday evening into Thursday as the mid-week system quickly lifts north and east into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Transient shortwave ridging dominates our weather Thursday into Thursday night resulting in partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 for our area. 

Overall, the end of the week looks wet and unsettled with the next low-pressure system entering the Deep South. There’s an chance of a complex of thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and possible flooding with this system somewhere along or near the eventual low track and warm front. So, let’s keep an eye out for that. Right now I do think we will dry out and be able to salvage most of Saturday. If the system slows though, rain may persist through the first half of the weekend.