Roller Coaster Ride Continues Through The Next 7 Days

A strong cold front is making its exit off the Carolina coast, bringing an end to the northern convective band and leaving behind scattered light showers. The Wind Advisory remains in place into the early morning hours across the higher elevations of Burke, Caldwell, and McDowell Counties as gusty winds continue. Clearing skies overnight will lead to temperatures dropping to around or slightly below freezing across the foothills. If it weren’t for the wind mixing the atmosphere, temps would be able to fall into the mid and upper 20’s. Despite cooler temperatures on Thursday, dry conditions are expected with a brief period of high pressure. We will have to keep an eye on fire danger as humidity values drop into the low 20’s.

After the brief respite Thursday, an active pattern resumes. Southwest flow aloft disrupts the calm weather, setting the stage for an approaching disturbance from the southern plains. Expect precipitation to return starting early Friday morning and persist through most of the weekend. While the forecast precipitation totals are currently moderate, there’s a chance for a mix of precipitation types, especially in the mountains of the Western Foothills Thursday night. Colder air lingering behind a departing high pressure center could bring a brief window of some freezing rain across the I-40 Corridor Friday Morning. Most of the area will experience a cold rain though. It will be cold and raw Friday with highs only reaching the low 40’s. Rain showers should taper off after midnight Thursday Morning and right now I am leaving Saturday dry. It must be noted though that depending on the track of the low pressure we could be stuck in clouds and light rain much of the day. Stay tuned. The flow will veer from the southwest Saturday Morning, which will erode the cold air wedge. This should allow high temperatures to get back up into the low 60’s Saturday.

As we move into the extended outlook, the unsettled pattern continues. A strong upper low forming in central Canada might trigger another round of precipitation at the beginning of the workweek. Models slightly differ, with the GFS showing a more significant response to a shortwave on Monday compared to the EURO, which leans towards a drier scenario. Towards Tuesday and Wednesday, the EURO hints at a low pressure system, while the GFS suggests a broad swath of precipitation with warm air advection. This is something to watch though.

As we transition further into spring, temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, ruling out winter precipitation types. The southwest flow persists, keeping ample moisture in the region, but the organization and intensity of showers remain uncertain. Stay tuned for updates as we monitor this evolving weather pattern.