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Good Wednesday Evening. We hope this winter weather briefing finds you doing well. Our first winter storm of the season appears to be taking aim on the area Friday Night Late through Saturday Morning.
High pressure to the northeast will be moving away and out to sea. If that high pressure were locked in place, we would be looking at a great snow event across the region. Instead, warm air will surge north ahead of the low pressure center and turn our precipitation over to freezing rain. Below I have uploaded a graphic of what we are talking about when we say a warm nose. The “warm” air moves in aloft and changes the precipitation over to rain because it melts the snow flake. Once a snow flake melts, the precipitation can never refreeze into a snow flake again.
Starting around 12 – 2am Saturday Morning our area will start out on the far right side of the graphic above. Cold air through the entire atmosphere will allow for a period of snow. As that low pressure sneaks closer though, that warm nose of air will come in aloft. So look for the precipitation to change to sleet and then eventually freezing rain. By late morning Saturday, our entire area looks like it will be completely on the left side of the chart above, even in the mountains.
Precipitation will end from southwest to northeast Saturday Afternoon between 2 and 5pm. It will remain cold though with temps not getting out of the 30’s. So that “warm” air is really not warm, it is just above freezing.
We will continue to watch this and another briefing will be issued tomorrow night.
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