Freezing Rain, Sleet, and Snow, OH MY! Brief Update on Tonight and Saturday’s Weather.

Good Wednesday Morning. I want to come to you this morning and offer two brief updates on the weather systems impacting our area this afternoon through tonight and Saturday. A more detailed high-impact weather briefing will be out this afternoon.

A surface front will move east along the Gulf Coast today and into the Atlantic tonight. Our in-house model is quicker and more robust with the precipitation shield over our area. Our model brings the moisture this afternoon as light showers across the region after 3:00 pm. That is too early and too robust with precipitation. Our forecast will feature only a 20% shot of liquid rain area-wide starting after 6:00 pm. With the system moving in quicker and, therefore, moving out quicker, cold air will no longer be in play except for the highest elevations of the mountains. Lows tonight will drop back to 30° or so along I-40 and around 32° for areas along Highway 74. I do not anticipate enough moisture to create travel problems on Thursday Morning.

Above: Model projected radar 11:00pm tonight (Wednesday Night Jan 3rd) Green is rain and blue is snow.

Friday Night, another southern stream surface low pressure will move east into our area. Ahead of it, weak and retreating high pressure to the northeast will initially have temperatures near freezing Saturday Morning. As the surface low approaches the Appalachians by daybreak Saturday, slightly warmer air will move into our area.

Along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and the adjacent foothills, including the counties of Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, and McDowell, we expect precipitation to begin between midnight and 2 am Saturday. Initially, the high will be close enough to supply enough cold air for snow. That snow will quickly change to sleet and then freezing rain by sunrise on Saturday. After sunrise, as that slightly warmer air surges north, temperatures will all come above freezing, likely even along the elevated slopes of the Blue Ridge, Brushy Mountains, and South Mountains. The process of ice accretion creates latent heat. So, as that high pressure moves away and we lose the supply of cold air, nothing stops temperatures from rising. This bump in temperatures should be enough to keep our area from receiving damaging accumulations of ice. Nevertheless, it is a very close call, and we will be fine-tuning that forecast starting this afternoon.

Elsewhere across Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, Rutherford, and Polk Counties, a brief winter mix is possible as precipitation begins Saturday Morning between 1 am and 3 am. This winter mix will quickly change over to liquid rain.

All areas could see upwards of another inch of rain from this system Saturday. The precipitation moves away by Saturday Afternoon, but temperatures will remain topped out in the mid 30s in most areas.

Above: Model indicate freezing rain footprint for Saturday Morning. Don’t pay too much attention the totals right now as there is still a lot of fine details to work out. This just shows the areas where freezing rain could develop Saturday Morning.