Friday (9/18/26) Discussion: Cooler, unsettled pattern anticipated next seven days

By Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Friday morning,

We are nearing the final 10 Days of September and from a weather standpoint, it has felt nothing like the beginning of fall. A very strong area of high pressure has resulted in dry weather and temperatures that are 10-or-more degrees above normal. The high pressure has shifted west some and that places the Carolinas into northwest flow regime where shortwaves will help instigate daytime and evening thunderstorms. Meanwhile, an upper low is retrograding west toward Florida.

For Friday, expect more of the same high heat and humidity as temperatures are expected to be in the lower-to-mid 90’s east of the Blue Ridge and mid-to-upper 80’s in the mountains of western North Carolina. Afternoon and evening storms will be moving from north-to-south and could produce locally heavy rainfall.

By the time we get to Saturday, low level winds will veer around to  northeast and that will provide for a cooler day compared to Friday and limited storm chances. This also signals the beginning of several boundaries that will dive down going into early next week providing a trigger for storms. The increased storms and moisture is going to keep the 90’s out of the region, hopefully for good (fingers crossed!)

By late Tuesday, we have a significant surface high pressure area located over Southeast Canada and taking on a classic cold air damming configuration down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. By mid-week, we could be looking at a full-blown “Carolina Wedge” setup loaded with low-level moisture yielding light rain showers, mist or drizzle.

The hope in this upcoming pattern is that precipitation chances will be enhanced especially by Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Our region has been dry since September 1 and it has resulted in a reversal back toward moderate drought conditions in the western Piedmont and abnormally dry in other locations. A good 1-2 inch rainfall over the next 5-6 days would be really nice should it verify.

Of course we will keep and eye on this and update the forecast daily to highlight the chances of rain and cooler weather.