Dry conditions in store for western North Carolina this workweek

Two hikers walk along a mountain trail overlooking layered autumn-covered ridges
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By: Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Monday morning,

We have a dry weather pattern in store for the Carolinas this week as high pressure begins to assert itself today.

Satellite image of the southeastern United States, featuring cloud cover over states such as Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
Visible Satellite 9/14/26, 11:15 am (GOES 16 COD)

Speaking of today, we are going to see a ton of sunshine through the rest of Monday and that will allow temperatures to be quite warm, low 90’s east of the mountains. Things change overnight as some easterly low level winds bring in Atlantic moisture. It shouldn’t be too deep a fetch of moisture but enough to enhance clouds along the Blue for Tuesday, therefor we are cooler by a solid five degrees.

Weather map showing wind speed and streamlines across the eastern United States, with highlighted areas indicating varying wind speeds in miles per hour.
European Model surface winds, Tuesday 9/15, 2 pm

On Wednesday, high pressure is to our west and off the Carolina Coastline is a weak upper low. The combination of features will create a northeasterly flow that will push in less humid air. There is an expansive area of high pressure across Southeast Canada that is the source region of the airmass.

Air temperatures will rebound into the upper 80’s to near 90 by Thursday but with the dry air, it should keep the air from being stifling. The big key in all of this will be the lack of rain for the entire work week, that will go to work against the drought across the Carolinas.

Weather model map showing wind speed and streamlines across the eastern United States, with arrows indicating wind direction. The map includes various wind speed values represented in mph.
European Model surface winds, Thursday 9/17, 8 am

Once we get into the weekend, our upper low is now off the Florida Panhandle and moisture levels will start to rebound across North Carolina as a deeper Atlantic fetch moves west. This may result in upslope-driven rain showers by Saturday.

Weather forecast map showing 850mb height, dam, and wind speed across the central and eastern United States for September 19, 2026, with highlighted high-pressure area and wind patterns.
European Model 850 mb winds, Saturday 9/18, 2 pm


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