Weather Patterns Remains Active: Next Severe Weather Risk Arrives Tuesday.

After a relatively quiet start to the weekend we’re watching the potential for a more active weather pattern develop on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the Carolinas. While scattered afternoon thunderstorms will remain possible Sunday and Monday, the overall severe weather threat stays low before increasing Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Over the next couple of days, we’ll remain in what’s known as a “Ring of Fire” pattern. That simply means a large dome of high pressure over the central United States will force clusters of thunderstorms to track around its outer edge and occasionally into the Southeast. For us, that translates into typical summertime weather through Monday, with scattered afternoon and evening storms developing during the heat of the day. A few storms could become strong enough to produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

Our attention then turns to Tuesday.

As a cold front moves toward western North Carolina, we expect the atmosphere to become much more favorable for organized thunderstorms. Temperatures should climb into the lower and middle 90s while humidity remains high, creating plenty of fuel for storms to develop.

What has our attention is the increase in wind shear, or changing winds with height. Forecast guidance continues to show stronger winds developing just above the surface while the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable. When those ingredients come together, thunderstorms have a much better chance of organizing into lines or clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts instead of remaining the typical pop-up summertime storms.

Because of this setup, much of western North Carolina is now under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. While that doesn’t guarantee severe weather, it does indicate that conditions are becoming more favorable for storms capable of producing damage.

At this time, damaging straight-line winds are our primary concern. Frequent lightning, torrential rainfall, and localized flooding will also be possible in the strongest storms. Although the tornado threat appears low right now, we’ll continue to monitor how the atmosphere evolves over the next couple of days.

One of the biggest questions is timing. If a cluster of thunderstorms develops and moves into the area earlier in the day, it could limit afternoon heating and reduce the overall severe weather potential. However, if we see more sunshine through the afternoon, the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable, allowing storms to intensify as the cold front arrives.

Some uncertainty also remains for Wednesday. Depending on how Tuesday night’s storms evolve and how quickly the cold front moves through, a few strong to severe storms could linger into Wednesday before slightly cooler air filters into the region. Even then, this won’t be a long-lasting change, as the front is expected to stall nearby and allow daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to return later in the week.

We’ll be watching forecast trends closely over the next 48 hours as confidence continues to increase. Right now, Tuesday is shaping up to be the day with the greatest potential for organized severe thunderstorms across the Foothills and western North Carolina. If you have outdoor plans, now is a good time to start paying attention to the forecast and make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings should they become necessary.