Winter Weather Event #3: Some Snow, A Lot of Disappointment

Good Wednesday Night,

We are roughly 24 hours from most of our areas second chance at snow already this young winter season.

Here are the latest forecast graphics. Confidence medium on the amount of cold air and the amount of moisture that this system will have to work with. One thing is for sure. It will be quick moving. In, then out in four to six hours. All of that together limits the amount of winter precipitation.

Right now moisture looks limited. Only about .20 to .30 amount of liquid. Now, normally that would mean 2-3 inches of snow here because our normal snow ratios are 10:1. However, this system will have a lot of mixed precipitation types along and south of US 421. North of 421 and then as you go up in elevation across the mountains, this will likely be a mostly snow event with the precipitation even there mixing with a little sleet and freezing rain.

Cold air will be retreating to the Northeast by Friday Morning because of the very fast paced jet stream that is in place currently. However, there will be enough cold air up around 10,000 ft that when heavier bands of precipitation move through, it will allow for evaporational cooling of the column of air from the surface to the ground, which will in turn sublimate the atmosphere, bringing colder air to the surface. The opposite occurs when moisture is limited. There isn’t enough sublimation to retain the column of air all the way to the surface below 32°, and the snowflakes melt. Then we get cold rain with an occasional flurry mixed in.

Overall a lot of snow lovers will likely be disappointed with this system. Right now it looks like the 33°-34° air will win out south of I-40 with areas along and north of I-40 bouncing between 32° and 34°. Once you get North of US 421 and back into the mountains, the temperatures should be able to maintain the 32° or lower temps through the event. Therefore, here are our graphics.