By: Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Wednesday morning, we continue to monitor the combination of an active weather pattern with cold air interacting with the moisture. So far over the past 5-7 days, our region has seen multiple cold air damming events that has led to marginal icing situations along the Blue Ridge escarpment. Another one in the series of events is coming on Friday but there may be enough of a cold air source in place to where locations outside of the mountains could see wintery precipitation for the first time this winter season.
Looking at the water vapor this morning, we have southern stream energy in the four-corners moving east. It will gradually shear out once it gets into the Southern Plains but there is enough response to where precipitation will break out again tomorrow along the Gulf Coast and will move east.
Forecast Timeline
Before we go any further into the forecast details, expectations are for precipitation to be light in nature, generally less than 0.20 inches liquid. However, with cold enough temperatures, that moisture could fall as rain, snow or a mix thereof.
Here’s a look at the precipitation timeline for Friday morning. We are using a combination the HRRR model along with some in-house guidance that FWN has access to.
Friday 1 am
Friday 5 am
Short range guidance indicates that this will be a quick hit of winter precipitation as temperatures will slowly warm into the mid 30’s by Friday afternoon.
FWN Snow Outlook
We are releasing a first map for Friday’s winter “potential” as of late morning Wednesday. Again, a moisture starved system with marginally cold air will allow for the chance of snow, rain or a mix to fall during the pre-daylight hours of Friday. Best chances of seeing a snowflake lies along and north of Interstate 40 at this time.
Should we get better agreement in the guidance today, a first call map will be issued either late this evening or Thursday morning.
