Atlantic Tropical Depression Number 4: What You Need to Know

Overview

Tropical Depression Number 4 has formed off the south coast of Cuba and is projected to strengthen into a tropical storm as it moves toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Saturday. This developing system could impact parts of Florida and the southeastern United States in the coming days. Here’s a breakdown of the latest information to keep you informed and prepared.

Current Status (as of 11 PM EDT)

• Location: 21.4°N, 79.7°W
• Distance: 75 miles south of Caibarién, Cuba; 260 miles southeast of Key West, Florida
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 mph
• Movement: West-northwest at 17 mph
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

Forecast Track

The tropical depression is currently moving west-northwest and is expected to turn northwest on Saturday, followed by a slower northward and then northeastward movement on Sunday and Monday. The system is anticipated to cross Cuba overnight and then move northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, potentially making landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast late Sunday or Monday.

Strength and Development

The depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by Saturday and continue intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico throughout the weekend. There is potential for the system to reach hurricane strength before making landfall.

Watches and Warnings

• Tropical Storm Warning: Dry Tortugas and the west coast of Florida from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande.
• Tropical Storm Watch: Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge, southern Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge, and the west coast of Florida north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River.
• Storm Surge Watch: Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Hazards to Watch For If Headed For The Coast

• Winds: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas by late Saturday and Saturday night. The watch areas could see tropical storm conditions by Saturday or Saturday night.
• Storm Surge: Rising waters from the storm surge could lead to life-threatening inundation in coastal areas. Expected surge heights are:
• Bonita Beach to Suwannee River: 2-4 feet
• Tampa Bay: 2-4 feet
• Charlotte Harbor: 2-4 feet
• Card Sound Bridge to Bonita Beach: 1-3 feet
• Dry Tortugas: 1-2 feet
• Rainfall: The system is forecast to bring significant rainfall:
• Florida and the Southeast U.S. coast: 4-8 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches, leading to flash flooding, urban flooding, and possible river flooding.
• Cuba: 1-2 inches, with localized higher amounts, potentially causing flooding.
• Tornadoes: There is a chance of isolated tornadoes in the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula from Saturday night through Sunday morning.

Local Potential Impacts

Current guidance suggests the storm will track near the Gulf side of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday, then turn northeast and cross the northern Peninsula Sunday night into Monday. The storm could slow down near the South Carolina coast early next week. This would lead to relatively quiet weather for Sunday and Monday in Western NC, with slightly above-average temperatures and rainfall chances. However, if the storm moves further west into the Gulf, Western NC could see more direct impacts, including heavy rain and gusty winds.

Some guidance suggests the storm could approach the southeastern edge of the forecast area. The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast places the storm near the South Carolina coast on Wednesday, and has it moving at a snails pace to the northeast. Model guidance varies greatly at this juncture in the forecast with some models pulling the system inland, thanks to a strengthening Bermuda high pressure system. All guidance show some variances of a trough moving in late week and that allowing the system to finally escape to the northeast. Guidance does not give a good timeframe on this solution though but sometime between Wednesday Night and Friday Night looks probably. It is too soon to forecast rain totals or any wind risk this far inland. I urge you to stay tuned.

Preparation and Safety For Those In It’s Projected Path

Residents in the affected areas should:

1. Monitor local updates: Keep an eye on the latest advisories from the National Weather Service and local authorities.
2. Prepare emergency kits: Ensure you have essential supplies, including food, water, medications, and important documents.
3. Secure property: Protect your home from potential wind and water damage by securing outdoor items and covering windows if necessary.
4. Evacuate if needed: Follow evacuation orders and guidelines from local officials, especially in areas prone to storm surge.

Key Messages from NHC

1. Heavy rainfall may cause flash and urban flooding across parts of Florida and the Southeast U.S. coast from this weekend through Wednesday.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of southwest Florida and the Dry Tortugas by Saturday night, with potential tropical storm conditions in other areas of Florida.
3. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along parts of the Florida west coast, particularly from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
4. Impacts such as storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rain could extend beyond Florida, affecting the southeastern U.S. coast from Georgia to North Carolina into next week.

Stay informed, stay prepared, and stay safe. For the latest updates, keep checking back with Foothills Weather Network as we keep you ahead of the storm.