Good Friday afternoon,
After dealing with Hurricane Beryl earlier this month the tropics have been very quiet as we are dealing with Saharan Dust and a global teleconnection that generally does not favor tropical weather development.
Could that be on the verge of changing? Some model guidance is suggesting that the first of August could present the development of a tropical system in the Atlantic Basin. A current look at water vapor imagery shows tropical waves exiting off the coast of Africa, a large expanse of dry air to the west and then an upper trough in the Southwest Atlantic.
The European model and its ensemble suite is latching on to a current tropical wave moving WNW across the Atlantic over the next week with gradual development occurring by the time this wave gets north of Hispanola by next weekend. The GFS suite is currently not showing anything.
Ensemble probabilities from the Euro suite is trying to bring a tropical low toward the Bahamas next weekend. If the Euro is correct, there will be plenty of warm ocean waters for any feature to work it.
The Bottom Line
Anyone who may have vacations planned in the Bahamas and Hispanola over the next 7-10 days should monitor forecasts…