Weekend Weather Outlook: High Pressure Brings Warmth, Rainy Midweek Ahead
As we head into the weekend expect a continuation of mostly clear conditions with gradually warming temperatures. However, changes are on the horizon as we move into the new week.
Current Conditions: Currently, our area is experiencing mostly clear skies, with most sites reporting gusts of around 15 mph. A broad expanse of thin cirrus clouds is moving towards the area from the west and is expected to move in as the evening progresses. The gusty winds are anticipated to subside over the next few hours as the lee trough weakens and an inversion begins to form. Tonight, temperatures should be near normal and too warm for frost formation.
Saturday’s Outlook: Upper-level ridging is gradually building into the area tonight and into Saturday. Surface high pressure will shift southward, while another lee trough forms by Saturday afternoon. Morning clouds associated with weak energy aloft will dissipate as it moves eastward, leaving mostly sunny skies for Saturday afternoon. Winds will increase from the southwest on Saturday morning as mixing occurs, with gusts developing by the afternoon. High temperatures are forecasted to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Despite rising dew points and a shift in low-level flow to a more southwestern direction, warming temperatures and a generally dry atmosphere will result in relative humidity values around 20 – 25 percent. It will be another dangerous day to do any outdoor burning.
Looking Ahead: Moving to the Saturday night through Monday timeframe, the foothills are expected to remain relatively quiet with minimal active weather. A quasi-zonal flow aloft will persist, with a weak shortwave passing through on Sunday. However, moisture levels will remain low, limiting any precipitation potential. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be well above average, with most areas reaching up to around 80° during the day and overnight temperatures remaining mild in the mid to upper 50s.
Extended Forecast: (Monday night through Friday), a pattern change is anticipated. A positively tilted trough will eject towards the east, increasing rain chances and cooler temperatures by midweek. However, confidence regarding severe weather potential remains low at this time, with uncertainties regarding moisture levels and lift. By Wednesday morning, a cold front will sweep across the region, bringing another cold snap into the Western Carolina’s. Gusty winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday due to a tight pressure gradient associated with a low pressure system that will be moving northeast. Dry conditions are forecasted to return by Thursday and persist through the remainder of the week and into next weekend. You will notice a drastic decrease in forecast high temperatures in the forecast. This is due to that departing low pressure getting blocked over the North Atlantic and the trough turning negative. This should allow for a deeper intrusion of colder air and freezing temperatures returning.