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Above: Chances of precipitation Wednesday Night / Thursday Morning
Good afternoon, and happy 2024 to you! Today is a beautiful day after a cold front moved through this morning. As a result, we are experiencing breezy and cool weather. The weather will remain active over the next seven to ten days, with a few chances of winter precipitation across the mountains and foothills.
The weather today will be calm after the cold front. The temperature will reach the upper 40s this afternoon, but it will feel colder due to gusty Northwest winds of 10-20 mph. On Tuesday, high pressure will move in, bringing calm conditions and temperatures similar to today.
On Wednesday, a small piece of upper-level energy will move eastward along the Gulf Coast. Models suggest a weak, low-pressure system will also develop along the Gulf Coast during Wednesday afternoon. Clouds will gradually increase throughout the day and will likely become cloudy by mid-afternoon. Upper-level moisture will move into the area on Wednesday night and Thursday while surface levels remain dry. We must monitor dewpoint temperatures since the air temperature can never fall below the dewpoint. Once the dewpoint and air temperature meet, the air is completely saturated.
Model-projected dewpoints are forecast to be between 31 and 35 across the region. In this situation, as moisture falls into the dryer surface air, the evaporational cooling process occurs. It’s the same process as when you get out of the shower, and your body becomes cool as the water evaporates. I have questions about how much moisture will be available to fall into this shallow, dryer, and colder air. At about 15000 ft and above the surface, it will be cold enough for snowflakes to develop. However, as the snowflakes drop through the atmosphere to around 4000-5000ft, temperatures rise to approximately 33 degrees. This temperature is not warm but warm enough to melt snowflakes. In areas such as Southeastern Rutherford, Cleveland, Lincoln, and Catawba Counties, surface temperatures will likely be 33-34 degrees. Across other counties, temperatures will be right around freezing.
As the cold front moves through on Wednesday night, the dewpoints will drop into the low 30s. However, current model projections show that the precipitation shield will have already moved northeast of our area. Nevertheless, we have added some precipitation to the forecast for Wednesday night. The precipitation is expected to be brief and light. Most areas will not even receive a tenth of an inch of liquid. Along the I-40 corridor, most places will not even receive five one-hundredths of an inch (.05). If there are any accumulations, they will be limited and extremely light.
Above: Model projected dewpoints 1am Thursday Morning
Below: Model projected radar 1am Thursday Morning
A few snow showers should continue until Thursday morning as the cold front and low-pressure system move away from the region. However, these snow showers will end quickly by sunrise on Thursday. Even in the mountains, only a light dusting of snow is forecast.
High pressure will keep the area dry on Thursday and Friday before the next wave of energy moves in. Although cold air will move in, high temperatures should remain in the mid to upper 40s. Thursday will be breezy, with cold air coming in from the northwest.
The weather forecast is becoming interesting, yet unsettled, especially across the foothills on Friday Night through Saturday. An upper-level trough will move in on Friday night. The low pressure within the trough has been moving south and eastward, with every new set of model data indicating a deeper trough. This trend is favorable for winter weather lovers in the area. Moisture should arrive aloft on Friday Night, moistening surface levels quickly. Expect precipitation to start between late Friday Night and Pre-Dawn Saturday. The track of the low pressure will determine the type of weather we will have. A track closer to the coast would mean colder air wrapping into our area, while a track closer to Charlotte would bring in a significantly warmer nose, resulting in rain.
Consequently, we need to keep a close eye on this. All precipitation types are possible from the mountains to the foothills, including a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and liquid rain. It is impossible to predict exactly what kind of winter weather totals to expect.
ABOVE: Projected atmosphere setup for 5am Saturday Morning shows cold rain for all areas outside the mountains but it is borderline. GFS takes the low up the mountains instead of along the coast. Surface wetbulb temp would be around 30 degrees though so evaporative cooling is possible.
Based on experience, there could be mostly snow in the mountains, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in the foothills, and rain with some wet snowflakes mixed in along and south of Highway 74. However, this is subject to change. Starting on Tuesday afternoon, we will need a high-impact weather briefing for this event. Regardless of the precipitation type, this system will bring significant precipitation to the area. Our primary focus is to determine the type of precipitation that will fall. It’s important to note that if there is a warm air mass aloft and cold air remains at the surface, a significant ice storm is possible.
On Sunday and Monday, high pressure should move in from the northwest, keeping the temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. The skies will be partly cloudy during this time. However, another weather system looks to arrive by mid-week, which could bring precipitation issues back into the forecast area. If you are a fan of snow, stay tuned for further updates.
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