Winter Weather Blog sponsored by Mi Paloma Mexican Restaurant:
Good afternoon! I hope you had a great weekend and are looking forward to a safe New Year’s Eve tonight. We certainly are! 2024 will be an exciting year for our area, with several weather systems expected to impact us over the next seven to ten days due to the active southern jet stream.
The first system will move through tonight. A cold front will cross the region late tonight, bringing more mountain snow flurries and light snow showers. Across the foothills, this will be a dry frontal passage and will arrange to keep temperatures slightly below normal this week.
Another cold front will dive toward the Carolinas on Wednesday. At the same time, a short wave from the southern jet stream will move east along the Gulf Coast. There has been a big question about whether the northern stream cold front and associated trough can phase with the southern stream short wave. Yesterday, ensemble models began to indicate the phase occurring closer to the coast. The front is slower, allowing for the short wave energy to phase with it over the South Carolina Coastline rather than waiting until it is entirely out to sea. The exact timing of two pieces of energy will be essential for what occurs in our area. Moisture looks limited this far north, but if the two pieces of energy can come together quicker, it would allow more moisture to transport back into western North Carolina, most likely Wednesday Evening. Today, the near-term models have reached the point where they forecast the initial timeframe on Wednesday. The NAM and Canadian models have trended toward the GFS Ensembles with more moisture available over Western NC. At the same time, the Euro remains the least opportunistic, keeping the moisture suppressed to the south.
Above: Futurecast Radar Projection for 1am Thursday Morning Blue = Snow Green = Rain
I must be responsible and tell you that forecast confidence remains low for this period. Over the next 24 hours, we can dial in the forecast and start working on more specifics. You should know, though, that there is the potential of a low-end winter weather event on Wednesday and Thursday this week. We will keep you posted. Right now our official 7 Day forecast will feature a 10% chance both days.
Above: Ensemble chances of receiving >1 inch of snow Wednesday into Thursday
A more favorable pattern will develop next weekend, which may also deliver another shot of winter weather to the area.
Probabilities of >1 inch of snow next Saturday January 6th
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