Natures Thrill Ride: A Week of Ups and Downs With Twists and Turns

Good Sunday morning! After a stormy pre-dawn morning, you are waking up to rain. The rain will continue throughout the day, increasing this afternoon and changing to snow in the mountains. The ridges of the south mountains may also experience a brief change to snow before the precipitation moves away quickly tonight. Northwest flow snow will persist over the mountains into Monday. It will become windy and chilly in the foothills as it dries out. High pressure will build in from the northwest, keeping temperatures low at the beginning of the week under dry conditions. Temperatures moderate through the mid and late week. The next weather system may affect the area next weekend.

Last night, there was a lot of thunder and lightning as the first wave of enhanced lift passed over our area. Currently, the radar is showing widespread light showers over the foothills. The latest data suggests that the heaviest rainfall early this afternoon will occur along the Highway 16/US 321 Corridors in Alexander, Catawba, Lincoln, and Gaston Counties as a surface low develops over the Piedmont. These areas could experience more lightning as the enhanced precipitation passes through. As a result, the risk of flash floods across Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Polk, and Rutherford Counties has reduced to near zero. Even in Alexander, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, and Gaston Counties, the flash flood risk is very low because not much rain fell in those areas last night.

The surface low mentioned above will develop over the Piedmont and move northeast this evening into tonight. As it progresses northeast, precipitation will stop from southwest to northeast after sunset. However, the low will draw cold air down from the upper levels of the atmosphere, causing precipitation to turn into snow above elevations of 2,700 ft. The upper trough responsible for this unsettled weather will tilt negative this evening, allowing colder air to rush in. This process will temporarily pause the eastward progression of the precipitation for a couple of hours. Eventually, tonight, the precipitation will end in the foothills and lower elevations. However, precipitation will continue across the mountains until midday Monday. Moist northwest flow continues due to moisture being brought south from the Great Lakes, lifted up the western slopes of the mountains, and distributed across the ridgetops. Any snow in the South Mountains will only lead to a dusting, while an estimated 1-3 inches of snow will be possible across the Appalachians. The highest elevations could even exceed 8-10 inches of fresh powder from this event.

Above: Storm total snowfall

Please be aware that it will get windy and cold tonight as a cold front departs. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 20s across the I-40 corridor and around 30° across the Highway 74 Corridor. Areas of Northern Alexander and Caldwell Counties, near the Brushy Mountains, may experience temperatures in the mid-20s. Winds will increase to Northwest 20-30mph, with some higher elevations seeing higher gusts. As a result, the wind chill on Monday morning will be in the single digits to low teens.

Above: Peak wind gusts through Monday

Additionally, models indicate the precipitation will be moving out slower, and temperatures are dropping rapidly, so there is a possibility of flash freezing of water on roadways. This may be especially true for backroads. Although the wind will dry out the roads considerably, patches of black ice may still be present and could pose a hazard. Please be cautious when driving across the area on Monday morning.

As mentioned, the Northwest flow moving across the mountains will dry out on Monday, ending the precipitation by midday. The winds will continue throughout the day on Monday before relaxing on Monday afternoon and Monday night. The flow at the upper levels of the atmosphere will abruptly turn zonal on Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday. A new cold front will move through the area on Tuesday night but will not have any impact. Temperatures will be pretty chilly on Monday, hovering around the mid-40s, but they will moderate and reach the low 50s on Tuesday. Shave five to ten degrees off those numbers across the mountains. Most mountain areas will stay in the mid-30s on Monday.

Ah, the easy portion of the forecast. Dry high pressure will continue through the remainder of the week. Look for sunshine, near-normal temperatures, and calmer winds.

As for the system next weekend, the models significantly differ in the resolution to a potential southern stream low-pressure system. The Euro keeps us dry while the American GFS brings the system North, bringing more unsettled weather to the area. I’ll highlight this timeframe as forecast uncertainty due to the disagreement in the models. The forecast will feature a 20% chance on Saturday and Sunday to account for the possibility of unsettled weather.

Special Edition Winter Weather Outlook:

Mountains: Winter Storm Sunday Evening through Midday Monday

Foothills: No winter storms currently forecast

White Christmas Probability: 5%