Pleasant weather persist most of week before transition to unsettled pattern

By: Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Monday afternoon, 

We continue to have a really nice weather pattern across the Carolinas with cool mornings and mild afternoons under sunny skies. The huge Nor’easter off the coast is now lifting out and high pressure is established along the entire east coast. 

High pressure should be overhead the Carolinas through Thursday, meanwhile back to our west an upper low is developing across the Four Corners Region and moving into the Southern Plains. There is an influx of Pacific tropical moisture due to the remnants of #Polo crossing over the mountains of Mexico and into West Texas. Meanwhile southeast flow from the Gulf adds to the mix giving Texas a lot of rain 

You can see the evolution of the moisture across Texas during the midweek timeframe as we remain high and dry across the Carolinas. We will continue to have pleasant nighttime temperatures through Thursday morning (low 50’s) with mild afternoons (80’s) with little in the way of clouds. 

Cooler, damp weekend on the way?

The pleasant weather begins to breakdown by Friday as the Plains moisture gets shunted east-northeast. That along with increasing southerly flow from the Gulf will make it more humid. 

Meanwhile a surface boundary from the north will slide into the Carolinas will provide a focus for southerly flow to overrun and produce rainfall. 

Also note, we have a surface high over the Great Lakes that could provide some cold air damming to work down the east side of the Appalachians by Saturday and Sunday. This damming episode should not be as intense as last week but still efficient enough to where showers and periods of drizzle and mist could persist through the weekend. 

Current blend of models is trying to keep the heaviest rain back over the Smokies and toward the Tennessee Valley. Given the potential CAD setup and overrunning, I wouldn’t be shocked if more of date heavier precip gets further east. 

Just be prepared for an unsettled weekend to end this nice stretch of weather.