Serenity in the Chill: Embracing a Cool and Tranquil Week Ahead

Good morning, and happy Monday! It’s pretty chilly outside today, with temperatures ranging from the low 30s in the northern parts and mid-30s in the southern foothills. Last night, the strong winds from the Northwest kept temperatures about 2-4 degrees above the expected lows, gusting over 40mph at times. Please be cautious when driving; some back roads may have slick spots this morning. Decks and porches may also be slippery, so watch your step! Much of the area received between 1.75 and 3 inches of rain over the weekend, significantly contributing to ending the drought. Finally, seeing the rivers flowing at total capacity again this morning was terrific.

Above: Rainfall totals from the weekend across the area. (Credit CoCoRaHS)

The ongoing snow showers in the mountains are driven by northwest flow this morning, but this will end by late morning. High pressure will then build in and remain until Wednesday. Another cold front will approach from the northeast by Wednesday Afternoon, back into the western Carolinas, providing a few passing clouds. Still, it won’t cause significant weather changes, and dry conditions will continue. After this front passes, high pressure will re-establish itself in the area.

The area’s pressure gradient will ease today, causing the gusty Northwest winds to subside gradually throughout the day. High temperatures should reach the mid-40s this afternoon across most of the area. Tonight, clear skies and calm winds will create ideal radiational cooling conditions, causing temperatures to drop into the low 20s in many foothill locations. The mountain areas will experience even colder temperatures, with lows in the teens by morning. Areas near the South Carolina border should expect lows in the upper 20s.

Surface high pressure will keep our area quiet, only interrupted briefly on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front that will move through the area. We will leave the forecast dry, though, as this front will have no moisture to work with. Behind the front, high pressure will build back into the area. Thursday will be another breezy day with wind chills in the 40’s but high temperatures around 50°. Wednesday and Saturday will be the warmest days of the week, with highs in the upper 50s.

Later this week, a complex split-flow pattern will develop across the United States. The models are having a hard time resolving the forecast for the weekend. Low pressure over the southwest US will move over the Southern Plains by Saturday. A small lobe of energy will move through the northern jet stream, which will be pretty zonal, and be over the Northern Plains by Saturday Afternoon. The GFS and Euro models have different predictions for how they are resolving the two jets. The GFS wants to unite the two jet stream pieces of energy, develop a gulf low, and move it up the East Coast by Sunday. This scenario would lead to a wet scenario for the area on Sunday. The Euro and the Canadian models disagree and keep the two pieces of energy apart, allowing the region to remain dry all weekend. Based on this guidance, I am less likely to predict rain for Saturday (10%) than Sunday (20%). It’s important to note that this forecast will change over the next few days. If the GFS is correct, it would likely be a cold air damming scenario over western Carolina’s on Sunday, holding temperatures down. However, if the GFS turns out to be correct, there won’t be enough cold air for anything other than liquid rain. I am leaning towards the ensembles, Euro, and Canadian Model Camps, although the GFS has persisted in its scenario for several days.

Above: Current KBDI (Keetch-Byram Drought Index). Take the number shown and move the decimal spot two places to the left and that is the amount of rainfall it would require to alleviate the drought. This shows a vast improvement over one month ago when these numbers were in the 600 – 800 range. (Credit NC Forest Service Fire Intelligence Portal)