Good Sunday Morning. A warm front will lift across the region this afternoon, bringing a round of weak showers and thunderstorms to the area. A cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing the chance of severe thunderstorms to the region.
We are starting the day mostly cloudy across the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms are developing across Northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and far Southwestern North Carolina along a warm front as of 9 am.
Those showers and storms will work northeast into our area by early afternoon. Scattered showers should work their way over the western sections of the foothills by 1 pm and then the eastern foothills by 2-3 pm. Some thunder will be possible, but instability remains very limited. We do not expect severe weather from this round of storms.
There remains a question about how quickly the warm front lifts north through the area. It will eventually take the initial showers and storms north of the area. If the storms lift north of the area quickly enough, the sun may pop out before it sets, allowing for marginal destabilization of the atmosphere ahead of the approaching cold front.
As the cold front approaches, wind shear will increase. Any instability could lead to maintenance of an approaching line of showers and storms associated with the cold front. Currently, we think instability will be very modest east of the blue ridge mountains. This should limit the severe risk in Alexander, Catawba, Lincoln, and Cleveland Counties. The foothills immediately east of the blue ridge mountains could have a severe wind gust (58mph or greater) linger into those areas, but even that should be isolated.
There will be thunder and lightning in all areas, though, as this second wave of thunderstorms pushes through. Torrential downpours will also accompany the storms. So there is a minimal risk of localized flash flooding for any area that sees storms train over their area for more than an hour.
In summary, be prepared for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight. Damaging winds and large hail are possible. Though thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, those should not become severe.
Timing for the first round of weaker showers and storms is between 1 pm and 3 pm. How long this round lasts may play a role in how severe the storms are that come through tonight.
The second round of strong and severe storms will be possible between 10 pm and 2 am. Those could last a couple of hours before moving east.
Chances for rain and thunderstorms Monday afternoon will be determined by how far east the front gets tonight. The best chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon (currently 40% chance) will be along the Highway 16 corridor. Areas west of there currently only have a 20% chance of showers and storms Monday afternoon.
