No Signs of Early Summer

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Monday to everyone,

We continue to experience what is a very tolerable weather pattern for the last full week of May. It’s mild with low humidity relatively speaking.

As you can see on the afternoon visible satellite image there is plenty of sunshine and clouds are relegated to areas of Georgia and down into Florida. There is also a plume of moisture in the Atlantic Ocean.

What’s causing this?

A general trough (weakness) in the upper levels of the atmosphere is centered over Northern Florida and over the course of the week this upper feature will develop into an upper low and will encompass the entire Southeast US. Meanwhile some cold, dry air will be pushed into the Northeast US and ooze southward into the Carolinas.

5-Day 500mb height anomalies (Wed-Mon)

With this setup the prevailing flow for most of this week across North Carolina will be from the northeast, that will keep the humidity at very tolerable levels. The northeast flow may bring in an influx of clouds at times. The end result will be temperatures at or below normal values.

Once we get to the end of the work week as the upper low retrogrades west, some Atlantic Moisture could be pulled in to increase rain chances. That will also limit temperatures.

Looking past the current 7-Day forecast, you can clearly see a southern stream weakness across the entire Continental US. That means no signs of heat building going into June 1.

This kind of synoptic pattern fits well with the building El Niño!

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