Seasonally Cold and Unsettled Pattern Coming Next Five Days

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Sunday evening to everyone,

We are going into the last full week of January across the Western Carolinas and we continue to see an active weather pattern across the Eastern half of the nation. An area of low pressure has passed to our north and west today dragging a lot of moisture over the top of cold, dry air at the surface. The result has been a cold, miserable rainy day for the Foothills and Western Piedmont as temperatures have been stuck in the upper 30’s and low 40’s.

Tomorrow we will dry out as a new batch of seasonally cold air moves in. This will clear skies for us east of the Blue Ridge but enough moisture may hang around in the high country to produce snow showers.

We look to remain dry for about 36-48 hours until the next feature dives into Texas and ejects into the Mid South and eventually the Midwest. As you can see on the moisture loop below, we get shortwaves to deliver active weather about every three days followed by an injection of cooler air. That’s going to continue for this upcoming week…

Wednesday looks to be the next rainy day across the region as a strong low pressure moves up through the Midwest. It will drag abundant moisture into the Western Carolinas overnight Tuesday and into the morning hours of Wednesday. There may be just enough marginally cold air in place for a brief opportunity at icing along the Blue Ridge Parkway but this looks to be mainly another cold rain event for the region.

Model Surface Map (Wed 7 am)

This storm system looks to be a pretty good rainfall producer for the mid week timeframe. Current estimates are that rainfall amounts could exceed 1 inch. One caveat that’s been noticed with guidance over the past few weeks is the over-estimating of rain compared to what actually occurs, so we’ll keep an eye on it and adjust forecast amounts as we get closer to Wednesday.

By Thursday the flow turns back out of the northwest again and drives cold air back in for the late workweek timeframe. This may also ramp up the northwest flow snow for our friends in the mountains.

Model surface map (Thurs 7 am)

Using a blend of the guidance the mountain tops above 4,000 ft has the opportunity of receiving several inches of snow through Friday. Good news for the ski resorts…

Model Blend Snowfall (Through Fri 7 pm)

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