Showers and Some Thunderstorms Possible Late Tonight and Wednesday Morning. Severe Weather Risk Is Limited

thunder striking a building photo

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Tuesday morning to everyone, our next weather system is organizing and will come our way in the next 12-24 hours bringing another round of rainfall to the Western Carolinas.

A look at the water vapor image this morning shows a trough moving east of the Rockies later today, strong winds at about 10,000 ft will help force convective activity from the Gulf Coast up into the Mid-South Region.

Looking down at the surface you can see this morning a good amount of Gulf Moisture has been pulled in toward the system across Texas and Louisiana. Dewpoints are in the 60’s and 70’s along the Gulf Coast That will get pulled up into Mississippi as we progress through the day.

Meanwhile here over the Carolinas, colder and dry air remains in place and that will be a saving grace for us ultimately. Dewpoints are in the 30’s.

The combination of moisture and wind energy will yield a significant severe weather outbreak today for the Mid-South Region and along the Gulf Coast. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) for severe weather centered across Central Mississippi. Tornadoes are expected in that part of the world today, a few of them could be strong (EF-2 or higher). Anyone with friends or family in that part of the country should monitor the weather for later today.

Below is a loop of the moisture content that is building up and will move northeast of the next 24 hours…

Model Generated 700mb moisture

The good thing for us here in the Carolinas is the warmer, moist air as it moves in tonight will overrun the lower dewpoint air at the surface. So once precipitation begins late tonight, it will help provide a stabilizing effect to the lower levels of the atmosphere across Western North Carolina.

The radar loop below shows precipitation knocking on the door of the Blue RIdge just prior to midnight. Some scattered locally heavy rain will move east overnight and even with the surface layer stable, there may be some elevated convection by tomorrow morning. Thunder could be possible.

HRRR Future Radar

The best news of all is the severe weather threat looks to diminish as we head into tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has Western North Carolina in a “general thunderstorm” category. We will keep an eye on it just in case some changes occur.

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