Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Thursday evening, at just before 10 pm we continue to monitor #Nicole as it now moves northward into Southwest Georgia…
The remnants of Nicole will move north overnight and then northeast toward the Southern Appalachians by mid-afternoon.
Looking at the very latest data, here is some updated information on the track and impacts to the Foothills and Western Piedmont.
Heavy Rainfall…
The video clip below is from the latest HRRR as it properly handling Nicole at this time…
Our rainfall map hasn’t changed much from yesterday. Everyone in the coverage area should see around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. As you get closer to the Blue Ridge those totals will be anywhere from the 3-6 inch range with local amounts higher.
As of 9:30 pm Thursday we have received automated reports of 1 to 1.4 inches of rain already today along the Eastern Continental Divide on the McDowell/Buncombe County line.
The escarpment region in Burke, McDowell and Rutherford Counties have the best chance of seeing some flash flooding between early tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon. The chances lower as you go east.
Severe Weather…
With the expected surface low associated with Nicole now expected to follow the spine of the Appalachians, we are a bit more concerned about the chance of some quick spin-up’s being on the eastern side of the low track…
Here’s a look at some of the latest guidance and when the threat of some stronger winds or quick spin-ups could occur…
HRRR: 5 am
HRRR: 7 am
Finally, here’s an overview on impacts from Nicole…
Heavy Rain has a medium threat and that will be most likely right along the ridge lines as they will repeated bands of heavy precipitation with light persistent upslope in between.
Severe Weather/Isolated tornado threat is non-zero for everyone and a bit more elevated for the Piedmont with the feeder band tomorrow morning to noon-time.
