Showers On The Way Through Halloween, Some Trick-Or-Treat Plans Could Be Impacted

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good early Sunday morning to everyone,

We are anticipating an unsettled next 36-48 hours across the Western Carolinas as a dynamic storm system continues to lift northeast pushing a ribbon of moisture through the Southeast US.

As you can see on the water vapor an upper low located near the Ozarks as of midnight Saturday night continues to spin as it slowly moves northeast toward the Ohio Valley Region. A solid plume of moisture has been pulled up out ahead from the Gulf of Mexico and it wraps into the upper low across Southern Missouri, Southern Illinois and the western extent of the Tennessee Valley/Mid-South regions.

A look at the Futurecast shows our system migrating to the northeast. A light easterly component at the surface which formed on Saturday will strengthen by Sunday morning so do not be at all surprised if light mist or drizzle breaks out especially north of Interstate 40.

By late day Sunday and going into Sunday night, South-Southwest flow aloft will begin to transport deeper moisture up against the Blue Ridge. Better shower coverage will take over the region Sunday Night and reaching its apex by Monday morning.

The timing in which this all tries to clear out late Monday is still in some flux. With the upper level feature moving into the Ohio Valley combined with a gradual weakening phase, the flow aloft will remain southwest for a while and there will be a clean push of moisture out until around early evening. The trend on this over the past 24 hours has been slower so impact to Halloween night activities could be in play.

HRRR Futurecast Moisture

This is something that will need to played by ear, some NOWcasting will be used with radar on Monday just to see if things might be out of here in time for Trick-Or-Treating.

Rainfall amounts with this event could range in the half-inch amount for a decent amount of us through Monday night.