We Need Rain! Will It Arrive Soon?

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Good Tuesday morning to everyone,

We have been blessed with some really nice weather this autumn season but the trade off is that we are becoming quite dry across the Western Carolinas.

A frontal boundary to our west is producing quite a bit of rainfall and severe weather for the Mississippi River Valley and Mid South. However this will all weaken later tonight as upper level support is moving northward.

This front will pass by late tonight and will provide little to no rainfall for the Carolinas.

This has been a reoccurring theme over the past six weeks or so and it’s leading to building drought conditions across a large part of the Southeast…

A look at some local rainfall statistics show below normal precipitation since September 1st. We have seen multiple occurrences of going 10 or more days without precipitation, which in the fall can heighten fire danger in a hurry. Being on the western edge of the rainfall associated with Ian late last month has been our only significant rainfall maker over the past two months.

Autumn Rainfall Data Since September 1st

Forest City: 6.92 in (7.07)

Hickory: 6.32 in (6.71)

Lincolnton: 6.31 in (7.23)

Marion 7.43 in (8.11)

Lenoir 5.81 in (7.31)

Shelby 5.31 in (7.02)

Data Source: NOWData (NOAA)

After tonight’s frontal passage, the next storm system will be moving across the Rockies and dropping Southeast…

500mb height anomalies (Wed 8 pm)

By Friday this system will be closing off at 500mb and will begin to scoop up some Gulf of Mexico moisture.

500mb height anomalies (Thur 8 pm)

The one difference with this upcoming weekend system are the heights across the Northeast will be building in front of the system. That will initially slow the progression of the storm system which gives it additional time to transport moisture. It will eventually lift to the northeast by Sunday.

All signs currently lead to our weekend storm system being a better rainmaker for Western North Carolina…

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