Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Tuesday morning, the weather over the past few days has been extremely nice, a treat for the first days of June. However reality sets back in starting today as convective chances are back in the forecast.
Water vapor image this morning shows a couple thunderstorm complexes, one crossing the Southern Appalachians and another out over the Plains states.
Moisture at the low levels has returned today, you probably noticed that on the morning commute as it wasn’t as crisp feeling compared to what we had over the weekend. That moisture will help fuel storms for the mid week. Precipitable water values are back in the 1.25 – 1.50 range with occasional spikes into the 1.8 – 2.0 range expected through Thursday.
Aloft we have an upper trough across the Great Lakes with an elongated ridge across the southern tier of the country. This is creating a conveyor belt of winds from the Rockies eastward into the Carolinas.
Shortwaves in the mean flow will be able to tap into that conveyor belt to transport clusters of storms across the country for the midweek. In Meteorology we refer to that as “ Mesoscale Convective Systems” (MCS)
The accuracy of modeling an MCS isn’t a perfect science but it’s the pattern recognition that says that storm chances are there for those in the path of an MCS. Here’s the recent modeling through Thursday for the Eastern US.
Storm chances are on the increase today through Thursday. Some of it will be a result of daytime heating and others could be due to a more organized cluster of storms in the evening and night time hours.
We will keep an eye on it, updates will be posted as always here on the blog and on social media. If you haven’t already, download The Foothills Weather App…