Long Range Outlook: Signs of First Summer Heatwave

Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley

Earlier today we talked about the pattern coming up through the end of the work week, a pattern that could include some Mesoscale Convective Systems.

The upper air pattern through the end of the week will be supportive of that, however once we get toward the end of the 7-Day forecast, some subtle but significant changes will occur that could lead to a substantial heatwave for the middle part of June. Trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will disappear and quite a heat dome (594-597 dm) looks to set up across the Southeast.

A heat ridge of that magnitude is supportive of mid-upper 90’s away from the Blue Ridge Mountains and and temps at or above 100 degrees for locations like Charlotte Metro and the Triad. Numerical guidance is currently following the synoptic look.

This kind of heat will impact summer activities now that all public schools will be dismissed for the summer. We will keep an eye on this and fine-tune everything once this gets within the 7-Day Forecast frame.