Good morning. It is Tuesday January 25th, 2022. Today’s sunrise will be at 7:33am and sunset will be at 5:48pm. You can feel the days getting a little bit longer. I won’t be long now until the sun sets after 6:00pm. Today we have the same amount of daylight as November 16th, though we have more daylight in the evening today than we did on November 16th.
Low pressure will move east across the Gulf of Mexico this morning as a front approaches our area from the North. The two systems will remain separate and will not phase (come together). For our area this means a cloudy morning followed by clearing in the afternoon as the front swings through. The system will be moisture starved because it remains separate from the gulf system. The mountains will carry a 40% chance of showers this afternoon. It looks as though the boundary layer will be around 3800 ft so below 3800ft we expect this to fall as all rain. Above 3800 ft some light snow may occur as the frontal boundary moves through. Across the foothills, we remain dry.
Quiet weather returns for Wednesday through Thursday.
We then turn our attention to our next potential weather system. Many of you have seen the viral posts about a possible blizzard of 93 but I can tell you that if you are here reading and hoping for that to occur, you may want to stop reading here. This could send you into a state of shock so I’ll give you a min to collect yourself.
Okay, we can continue now. Models have varying differences of what will transpire over our area Friday and Saturday. The models agree that there will be low pressure that develops off the East Coast of Florida Friday. That low moves north but models diverge from their agreement there. The GFS moves the low pressure North from Florida but keeps the system well off shore until it gets North of The Carolina’s. At that point the low phases with the northern jet stream to produce a winter storm for the northeast. The EURO brings the system North right along the coastline and phases it with the Northern jet around the NC/VA line. Therefore the Euro is more bullish with precipitation back across The Carolina’s. The Canadian is in line with the GFS. The ensembles are trending toward the GFS and Canadian models.
We will continue to advertise more clouds than sun Friday and Saturday but we are going to keep the forecast dry, with only 10% chances of precipitation. Of course, we will monitor the forecast and keep you abreast of any changes that may occur. The bottom line is that we are NOT looking at another big winter storm across the area at this time. We can almost guarantee that we are not looking at another blizzard of 93 with this system as some other sites claim. When model data is shared a week or more out with big snow totals, you should take it with a grain of salt. The GFS is horrible at producing some type of huge weather event a week and half out. It does it almost once a week. While models highlight patterns, they can’t deifier exactly what may occur at the oak tree in your back yard 5+ days out, no matter what other hype pages may say.
Now that we have divulged a forecast that is less than exciting for snow lovers, I have to check your well being. Everyone okay? If not, hang in there because we are coming up on our snowiest month of winter based on climatology, February.