Best Rain Chances in a Month Coming This Weekend, Or Will It?

Good Wednesday morning to everyone,

Fast zonal weather flow continues across the Southeast region on this Wednesday. A disturbance brought some rainfall to parts of South Carolina overnight but very little of it made it into North Carolina. That is the name of the game right now across the region as a drought has settled in for the Piedmont.

The next weather feature of interest is a shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest, it is expected to eventually carve out a significant trough for the Western US by tomorrow. With the overall flow being fast and chaotic, it will translate east going into the weekend.

This feature is anticipated to be strong enough to bring a cold front through the southeast on Saturday, stronger than the front that moved through just a couple days ago…but will that trend hold as we get closer to the event?

There are a few concerns in the trends synoptically over the past 48 hours as the trough seems to be coming in less amplified with each passing run. The less amplitude we have, the less precipitation expected…

That is a trend we will need to monitor for over the next day or two as this storm system gets inside the mesoscale models timeframe.

As of now, we think a half-inch of rain is possible for most locations…

But the old saying “When in drought, leave it out!” might be rearing its ugly head here in the guidance…stay tuned!

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