By: Lead Forecaster Daniel Crawley
Good Tuesday morning, it’s the first day of Meteorological Autumn but the weather appears to remain stuck in summer as above normal temperatures are expected for the rest of the workweek.
A large area of high pressure will control the weather over the Carolinas, but how long will it remain intact?
Let’s look at the forecast timeline.
Wednesday PM
The heat begins to crank up today but it reaches a peak starting later Wednesday and into Thursday. High pressure aloft will be centered over the Southern Appalachians by Wednesday afternoon and that will result in temperatures in the 92-95 degree range in the foothills and escarpment, 94-97 degrees in Southern Rutherford, Cleveland and Lincoln Counties.
Friday PM
Subtle changes begin on Friday as our broad ridge begins to flatten out some and slowly shift west. Temperatures are again likely 92-95 north, 94-97 south on Friday afternoon but there won’t be as much sinking air prevalent and it may be enough to allow airmass thunderstorms to form along the Blue Ridge during peak heating.
You can also see developing vort maxes over the Northern Plains, those may begin to shift southeast late Friday.
Saturday PM
By Saturday there is an evident change in the pattern as northwest flow will send upper level energy toward the Carolinas. This along with high moisture content in place should lead to good storm coverage both Saturday and Sunday.
Summary
Well above normal temperatures will be established by Wednesday and should remain through Friday before increased storm chances will take a little edge off the heat for the Labor Day Weekend.
Intact, by Sunday we could have a backdoor front hung up across the region. The exact placement of that will be the difference between warm, muggy overcast skies and milder, less humid air.
There’s some model disagreement on just how much we can clear out for Labor Day itself, stay tuned!
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