After several days of scattered thunderstorms, our weather pattern is beginning to shift as a strong area of high pressure strengthens over the Tennessee Valley and expands into the Carolinas. That will send temperatures climbing through the remainder of the week, making this our hottest stretch of weather so far this summer.

The good news is that the latest forecast trends continue to move away from what initially looked like it could become a historic heat wave. While this will still be dangerous heat, current forecast guidance suggests lower humidity during the hottest part of the afternoon should keep heat index values from reaching the most extreme levels across much of the Foothills. Instead of oppressive humidity combining with the heat, the atmosphere is expected to mix efficiently each afternoon, allowing dewpoints to fall and preventing heat indices from climbing as high as they otherwise could.

That doesn’t mean the heat won’t be dangerous.

High temperatures will climb into the upper 90s across much of the Foothills, with a few locations flirting with the 100-degree mark by Thursday and Friday. Even mountain valleys will see temperatures well into the 90s. Heat index values will still likely top 100 degrees in many communities, especially during the afternoon hours, so anyone spending time outdoors should continue taking precautions. Drink plenty of water, limit strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, and never leave children or pets in parked vehicles.

While most of the Foothills stay dry through much of the week, the mountains will continue to see scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms develop each day. The higher terrain will provide just enough lift to overcome the otherwise stable atmosphere. Any storm that develops could quickly become strong, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and small hail before weakening after sunset.

Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, the hot weather will continue through Saturday before beginning to ease late in the weekend. By Sunday and early next week, the upper ridge responsible for the heat will begin shifting east as a more typical midsummer pattern returns to the Carolinas.

That means temperatures should settle back into the lower to middle 90s, which is much closer to average for early July. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also become more widespread each day as moisture increases across the region. Some of those storms could once again become strong with damaging wind gusts, but they will also help provide some relief from the heat.

Bottom line: The hottest weather of the year is still on the way, but the latest forecast trends suggest we’re moving away from the possibility of a truly historic heat wave. Even so, temperatures near 100 degrees and heat index values over 100 will create dangerous conditions through the end of the week, so now is the time to prepare if you have outdoor plans heading into the Independence Day holiday.