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As of 7:00am: Winter storm underway across North Carolina. Travel is snarled in most areas, especially those where ice from last weekend had not melted yet. A low pressure has developed at the surface over the Smokies, and that is providing extra lift to the areas just north of its track. This will likely impact totals on the high end for Rutherford, Cleveland, Gaston, and Lincoln. It does appear a lot of the areas in these cou ties will exceed 6 inches of snow. Further North, moderate snow continues as well and dry slotting appears to be limited in the tail end of the system. Confidence has increased that even those in our circled area of concern for not reaching 3 inches, will likely achieve atleast the minimum forecast threshold.
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As of 11:00 pm: Snow flurries have started developing across the remainder of the foothills tonight as sublimation continues. Snow will expand in coverage and intensity through 5:00 am. Upper-level energy continues to dive south from Canada through Iowa tonight. By morning, the energy will be over West Tennessee, and a new meso low-pressure system will develop somewhere near the Smokies. That meso low will move into the Upstate SC area, enhancing snowfall rates across the area, especially from Rutherford to Cleveland, Lincoln, Gaston, and Mecklenburg County. Right now, trends indicate this area is the sweet spot for accumulations, which may exceed our final call forecast of 3 – 6 inches. This depends highly on where convective banding sets up and trains over the same areas.
In the areas north and west of there, snow will also pick up through the morning hours on Saturday as the lift increases dramatically. Across the entire area, the greatest snowfall rates will occur between 7 am and 3 pm on Saturday, with temperatures in the 20s. Snow ratios will increase to around 16:1 or 17:1, allowing for rapid accumulation. The area west of NC 18/US 64 against the Blue Ridge still appears to have a lot of dry air that will fill in quickly Saturday Afternoon. This still may limit totals west of Morganton and Lenoir, including Marion and Old Fort. That is not to say it won’t snow in those areas; it will, but totals may be lower than elsewhere. Overall, the forecast looks on track.
As of 8:00 pm: Good Friday Evening, everyone. At 8:00, a couple of notes. The upper-level energy is now diving south through Iowa. Additionally, low pressure seems to already be developing off the coast of NC. In turn, precipitation is starting to reach the surface in isolated areas across the piedmont and mountains. Right now I would consider it more flurries
The Hurricane Hunters flew out into the southwest Atlantic this afternoon to gather data, and that data will be injected into the 00z model data, which will help increase confidence on exactly where the elevated warm front will develop and dump the snow over eastern NC. It will also help show just how much dry air may or may not engulf the system back over our area.
8:00 pm water vapor. X is the upper-level system diving south and deepening. Circle is the low-pressure system developing off the Gulf Coast. Things seem to be running just ahead of schedule right now. With precipitation breaking out across the area before the two systems interact, it could help to increase snowfall totals. Overall, our forecast still appears eon track and no significant changes at this time.
