Good Wednesday evening to everyone,
A reminder that our Winter Weather coverage is sponsored by Wendy B’s Embroidery & Screen Printing located at 3076 N.C. Hwy 18 South in Morganton.
We continue to monitor the likelihood of a major winter storm this weekend across the Carolinas. Confidence remains very high on the overall setup and some additional factors are starting to come together when it applies to precipitation types and who may receive what. (click on image to expand)
Storm timing
We continue to have pretty good agreement from the global models and now some of the short range guidance as to when this winter storm will begin. We are looking at a start time of the daylight hours of Saturday and lasting through the day on Sunday.
As you can see on the images below, a low pressure in the Gulf will move east-northeast and override cold arctic air in place.
Computer Model Trends…
There has been a shift in the guidance over the past 24 hours that suggests a warm nose aloft will move northeast across the region late Saturday night and into Sunday morning while precipitation is falling with surface temperatures well below freezing. That is going to result in a winter mix of types from snow over to sleet and freezing rain.
The GFS (left) along with the European (right) shows how the temperatures from roughly 5,000 – 7,000 feet passes the blue freezing line. The Euro verbatim is a bit more aggressive and suggests that freezing rain could be a higher impact across the entire coverage area while the GFS would suggest more of a sleet profile.
Our weather team is a big leery of the European based temperature profile but it cannot be totally ignored at this moment. A longer sleet transition would be better in terms of limiting some power outages but worse for road conditions.
Summary
- Major winter storm is going to impact the Carolinas with snow, sleet and freezing rain. That along with the very cold temperatures will result in major impacts.
- The trend for freezing rain and sleet has increased, that will impact local infrastricture
- With the expected cold temperatures during and after the storm, impacts are likely to linger into next week.
- Continue preparations for the potential of loss of utility services and tree damage in areas where freezing rain accretes the most. Have an alternate heating source and make sure the pets and elderly are properly secured from the weather conditions.
Foothills Weather Network is planning on releasing a broad “first call” on precipitation amounts later tonight on social media and on our website.