Confidence continues to increase that a winter storm system will impact the area this weekend, with the most likely timeframe being late Friday night through Sunday night. While there is still uncertainty regarding the exact type and amount of precipitation, confidence is growing that moderate to potentially significant winter weather impacts are possible.
Key Message 1: Confidence Increasing in a Significant Winter Storm
Confidence continues to increase that a winter storm will impact the area late Friday night through Sunday. The likelihood of accumulating snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain has increased, and there is now a high chance of warning-level winter weather across the region. While the exact precipitation mix remains uncertain, confidence is growing that moderate to significant overall impacts are possible.
Key Message 2: Prepare for Travel Disruptions and Power Outages
Residents should begin preparing now for the potential of a significant winter weather event starting Saturday. Regardless of whether impacts come from snow, sleet, or ice, hazardous travel conditions are increasingly likely, and power outages are possible, especially in areas that see ice accumulation. Preparations should include travel planning, securing supplies, and having alternate power and heat plans.
Key Message 3: Impacts Could Last Into Early Next Week
Very cold air will remain in place through the weekend and into early next week, which means snow and ice may melt very slowly. Travel problems and power outages could linger into Monday or Tuesday, and dangerously cold wind chills may develop, increasing the risk of hypothermia or frostbite if proper precautions are not taken.
What We Know Right Now
Forecast models are increasingly in agreement that cold Arctic air will move into the region while moisture spreads across the South along a stalled frontal boundary. This setup is favorable for widespread, significant, wintry precipitation to develop across the foothills.
Unlike recent systems, cold air is expected to be firmly in place, increasing the likelihood that precipitation will fall as snow, sleet, or freezing rain, or a combination of all three. The main question is how quickly precipitation arrives compared to how fast the cold air moves in, which will determine precipitation type.
Timing of the Storm
At this time, the most likely window for impacts is:
- Late Friday night through Sunday night
This timing may still shift, but confidence is increasing that the majority of impacts occur on Saturday and Sunday.
Snow vs. Ice: Why It’s Still Uncertain
This system is shaping up to be a typical Southern winter storm, where small changes in temperature anywhere in the atmosphere can make a big difference.
- If precipitation arrives after the cold air is fully in place, the region could see mainly snow and sleet.
- If precipitation arrives before the cold air is fully established, a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow becomes more likely.
Recent model runs show this uncertainty clearly:
- Some guidance favors more sleet and snow
- Other guidance favors more freezing rain
- Many ensemble models show a combination of winter precipitation types
While confidence in the exact precipitation type remains low, confidence in the occurrence of impactful winter weather has increased.
What the Probabilities Are Showing
The National Blend of Models (NBM) highlights the increasing risk:
- Snow/Sleet (4 inches or more):
- ~50–80% chance across much of western North Carolina
- Ice Accumulation (0.25 inches or more):
- ~20–40% chance along and north of I-40
- ~40–60% chance south of I-40
These probabilities support a high likelihood of warning-level winter weather somewhere in the area, even though the exact mix remains uncertain.
Expected Impacts
Regardless of whether impacts come from snow, sleet, or ice:
- Travel could become hazardous, especially on Saturday and Sunday. Roads will not improve any time soon as we go into the week, as arctic air remains in place.
- Power outages are possible, particularly in areas that see ice accumulation
- Emergency services and normal routines may be disrupted
Residents should begin preparing now, including planning for limited travel, checking winter supplies, and ensuring access to heat and power.
Cold Air and Lingering Impacts Next Week
Cold air will remain in place behind the storm, with temperatures well below normal through much of the weekend and into early next week. This means:
- Snow and ice may melt very slowly
- Travel issues and power outages could linger into midweek
- Dangerously cold wind chills may develop Monday night into Tuesday morning, increasing the risk of hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken
If current trends continue, Cold Weather Advisories may be needed across the region early next week.
Bottom Line
- Confidence is increasing in a winter storm this weekend
- Exact precipitation type and amounts remain uncertain
- The risk of hazardous travel and power outages is growing
- Preparations should begin now, and residents should stay updated as the forecast evolves
This is an evolving situation, and changes are still possible. We will continue to monitor trends closely and provide updates as confidence improves.
