We continue to monitor the weather pattern for late next week as guidance continues to evolve.
A model run yesterday briefly showed a scenario where the northern and southern jet streams could phase, producing a winter weather event across our area on Thursday, followed by another opportunity heading into next weekend. Since that run, the guidance has backed away from that solution, and the models have diverged on how this pattern ultimately plays out. That’s not unusual at this range.
Current data shows the Thursday clipper system moving through faster and with less strength. That quicker progression does not allow time for a coastal low to develop or for moisture to wrap back into the Carolinas. While the setup does appear favorable for upslope snow in the mountains, the overall pattern remains too progressive for any meaningful organization outside of those areas.
Attention then turned to the second system next weekend, which initially appeared to have a more favorable setup for winter weather. More recent runs, however, show the upper-level trough delivering the cold air racing east ahead of any organized southern-stream system. The result is a familiar one: cold air arrives, but moisture does not. That points toward a cold and dry outcome.
At this point, we remind everyone that individual model runs are not forecasts. Our job is to analyze trends, identify the most likely solution, and build a forecast from there.
Our current forecast continues to reflect reduced precipitation chances—around 10 percent—outside of the mountains. Clipper systems rarely produce widespread precipitation east of the Blue Ridge due to northwest flow and downslope drying, and this setup fits that pattern well.
For now, we are trending downward on snow chances. This remains subject to change, and while the broader pattern stays weakly favorable for winter weather somewhere in the Carolinas, confidence in any impactful event locally is low at this time.
We’ll continue to watch the pattern and adjust as the data becomes clearer.