❄️ 7-Day Snow Risk Outlook

We’re watching a couple of systems over the next week that will bring colder air and periods of rain back into the Carolinas, along with some limited winter weather potential for the mountains and nearby Foothills.

After a dry and seasonably cool start to the weekend, our next round of rain arrives Sunday with a cold front. Model guidance continues to show mainly cold rain for the Foothills with that system, with only a brief chance for light NW‑flow snow on the back side across the highest peaks along the Tennessee border.

The better opportunity for wintry mischief comes late Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure develops to our south and rides up the coast. The latest 00z runs are in better agreement on this setup:

A shallow wedge of cold air tries to nose down the east side of the mountains, Warmer air rides up over the top, And we get a wintry mix zone from the high mountains into parts of the I‑40 corridor—including the higher elevations of Burke, Caldwell, and McDowell Counties.

Right now, the thermal profile strongly favors sleet and freezing rain, over pure snow in that corridor, with a changeover to mostly rain by late Tuesday morning for much of our area. That’s a key reason why our 1-inch snow probabilities stay on the low side, even in the more favored counties.

7 day chances of 1 inch of snow

County-Level Takeaways

Highest chances (but still not “high”):

McDowell (20%)

Burke (15%)

Caldwell (15%)

Polk (15%)

In those counties we are mainly looking at higher elevations near the Blue Ridge, where a brief period of snow or snow-on-top-of-mix could add up to around an inch if everything lines up just right. Ice chances are Monday Night into Tuesday across the lower foothills along I-40.

Low chances:

Alexander (10%)

Catawba (5%)

Cleveland (5%)

Lincoln (5%)

Rutherford (5%)

These counties are more likely to see cold rain or brief wintry mix than accumulating snow with this pattern.

Tonight’s Bottom Line

We do not see a strong signal for a widespread, plowable snow across the Foothills in the next 7 days. A few of our higher ridges near the Blue Ridge Escarpment could squeeze out around an inch of snow, mainly late Monday night into Tuesday, but that will be the exception, not the rule. For most towns in our coverage area, this week looks more like a cold, occasionally wet pattern than a classic winter storm setup.

We’ll keep tracking the trends in the overnight model cycles and will update you if those snow probabilities start to move in either direction.