Sunday’s Tropical Update

Tropical Atlantic Update – Cutting Through the Hype

Over the past several days, there has been no shortage of chatter on social media and even some traditional media outlets about the potential for a “major hurricane” to threaten the U.S. in a couple of weeks. While the headlines make for attention-grabbing posts, the reality is far more straightforward—and far less alarming.

Here’s the bottom line: Over the next 10 days, there is no tropical threat to the United States or the Foothills region.

Looking a little farther out toward the day 13–16 range, we do have one feature to keep an eye on—Tropical Wave Invest 97L. Right now, this wave is well out in the central Atlantic, and guidance continues to suggest it will organize and likely strengthen into a hurricane as it tracks west-northwest. The key point is the larger-scale setup, or synoptic pattern, that will guide its eventual path.

Across the Atlantic Basin, a few important features are in play:

• Bermuda High Positioning – The subtropical high that often steers storms westward is currently weaker and displaced slightly east. This opens the door for systems to curve north earlier than they would in a typical “classic Cape Verde” track toward the Caribbean.
• Mid-Latitude Troughs – A series of frontal boundaries and upper-level troughs will be sweeping across the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic over the next couple of weeks. These features act like a “revolving door,” encouraging storms to turn northward and eventually northeast.
• Warm Atlantic, but Unfavorable Angle – While sea surface temperatures are plenty warm to support intensification, the steering currents are trending toward an offshore solution.

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If current trends hold, Invest 97L should reach its closest point to the U.S. well offshore, curving into the open Atlantic without directly threatening any coastlines. That said, swells and rip currents are always possible along the East Coast from a storm passing nearby, even without a landfall.

The takeaway? We’ll watch Invest 97L and other waves as they come off Africa—it’s hurricane season, after all—but there is nothing in the reliable time frame that should cause concern for our area. The hype right now is simply running ahead of the facts.

We’ll keep you posted if the picture changes, but for now, enjoy the quiet stretch in the tropics while it lasts.