Good Wednesday morning to everyone,
#Rafael is on the verge of being a major hurricane later today as it is about to cross western Cuba and enter into the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.
Below is the latest forecast track for #Rafael as wind speeds are now at 110 mph.
You probably notice on the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center a significant deviation toward the south and west on its track for later this weekend.
Global guidance is coming into better agreement on some ridging that will extend west from Florida over into the Northern and Eastern Gulf of Mexico. That is allowing for the shift in track.
This trend is good for the Northern Gulf Coast as landfall looks to not happen, at this point. On the other hand, a further south track may also keep hostile upper level winds will shearing it apart, so we may end up with a hurricane for a longer period of time.
Here locally, this shift in the synoptic players will mean that moisture intrusion this weekend will be less potent than if #Rafael had come further north.