(9/20/24, 3 pm) Tropical Weather threat looming for Gulf next week?

Good Friday afternoon,

We have a really nice weekend coming up across North Carolina and it may linger into the first half of next week. It will be warm and a tad humid.

Eyes will shift down toward the western Caribbean as there is expectation that a tropical system may organize starting early next week as the Central American Gyre is developing. You can already see hints of increased moisture tucked down in that part of the world.

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted the region for tropical develop over the next seven days, they have bumped the odds up to 50% as of the Friday afternoon update.

Both the global models (GFS and Euro) has this feature moving north toward the Yucatan Peninsula by the middle of next week. The ensemble suite from both models agree with the operational runs.

Should we get to the middle of next week and there is a system in the Southern Gulf, there is a high likelihood of US impacts somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Keep that in mind if you have an early fall vacation in mind for the weekend of Sept 27-29. The ensembles are hinting at the moisture ultimately getting pulled north and northeast by next weekend into the Southeast.

Climate Prediction Center is on board for increased precipitation amounts in today’s Day 6-10 outlook.