Good Monday afternoon to everyone,
Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 is coming ashore along the Carolina coastline here at the noon hour. This feature never organized into a true tropical cyclone as a frontal boundary remains entangled in the mid level dynamics driving this system. Regardless of whether it had a name or not…the impacts are the same. Rain, Rain, Rain!
The radar rainfall estimates are quite impressive across Southeast North Carolina as amounts of 8-15 inches have fallen in the Kure Beach, Oak Island, Southport areas.
Since this storm never developed at the surface, we will continue to rely on the mid and upper level features to forecast where the precipitation will move over the next 24-48 hours. The expectation is for moisture to expand west toward our region by tonight. Also, as the upper level features begin to weaken, it allows to moisture field to broaden in scope.
By Tuesday, what is left of a spin at the mid levels will be located just south of the Charlotte Metro area and will stall out somewhere across the Western Carolinas. That will keep a stout flow of moisture coming in from the east.
The Bottom Line…
Moisture will increase tonight especially and will linger through a good part of Tuesday. Our locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment will be the last to see the rain end as upslope flow will be prolonged.
Our forecast for rainfall has been bumped up slightly given that models have come to a consensus. 2-4 inches of rainfall is expected through Wednesday morning with the escarpment areas capable of receiving locally higher amounts. The good news is that with the duration of event, most of the precipitation should hopefully be able to fall without risk of significant flooding.
Another item will be an increase in wind gusts tonight as the feature pulls inland. Some gusts may exceed 30 mph at times, especially the further east you are. That could lend to some isolated downed trees and power lines once the ground becomes saturated.
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