Good Sunday morning to everyone,
It’s the first day of September and that means were are in the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. While it has been quiet lately, there are signs that at least one tropical wave could slowly organize over the next 5-7 days.
The latest National Hurricane Center Outlook clearly shows an area in the Caribbean that is highlighted for development.
Looking at what is going on globally, we are in phase 4 of the MJO. In simple terms the MJO is a teleconnection that is used to show which areas of the globe are favored to see more upward motion (lift) in the atmosphere. Of course, the more lift, the more likely showers and thunderstorms can develop and organize.
Normally phase 4 isn’t very favorable for Atlantic tropical regions but we have already seen one storm (Beryl) form earlier this summer during a phase 4. So, the MJO isn’t the “end-all, be-all” when it comes to weather prediction.
FYI: Phases 8,1,2 and 3 are favorable MJO stages for upward motion in the Western Atlantic.
Our tropical wave is expected to remain in a westerly motion for the next 5-7 days and work its way into the Caribbean. We are getting some support of this from the global ensembles. The European ensemble suite for example has several members that show at tropical storm in the Western Caribbean by the end of the upcoming work week.
Once we get to next weekend it is anticipated that a storm will be developing and its strength will help dictate its motion in the long term. A weak and disorganized system will likely interact with Central America while a stronger system will impact the Yucatan.
The good news is that we have all of this upcoming work week to monitor what evolves from this system. Don’t believe in the hype of individual model output that some are willing to share on social media.
If this feature begins to evolve as the European Ensembles are trying to predict, our weather team will likely post a new blog Thursday or Friday. Stay Tuned!
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