Guidance trying to lock-in with tropical feature in MDR next week

Good Wednesday evening, hope everyone is doing well.

Locally, the heat is the big story as North Carolina saw it’s highest temperatures of the summer. Charlotte reached 99, Raleigh-Durham Airport sizzled its way to 103-degrees. A lot of mid-upper 90’s across the Foothills and Western Piedmont.

While the heat continues to be the major story in the short term, we are paying attention to the tropics as there could be some increased activity in the longer term. As you are probably aware, a lot of talk on social media has centered around the potential of a very active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. A couple features tried to develop before moving into Mexico but now attention shifts toward the MDR (Main Development Region) in the Atlantic Ocean. A disturbance a few hundred miles west of Africa will move west over the next week-plus.

The 500-mb flow is straight-forward as heights across the NW Atlantic and into the United States will keep any development moving in a westerly direction for the seven days or more.

Guidance has really latched on to the idea of a gradual development of low pressure with any possible feature reaching the Lesser Antilles by Day 5 (Monday) and then from there, any change of direction will be dictated by the intensity of the low pressure. A weaker surface low will keep a more western trajectory…and if the development is more significant, there could be a tug more toward the northwest in Days 6-8.

The sea surface temperatures are definitely warm for late June, which is a concern should conditions aloft allows for development…

The Bottom Line…

No reason for panic here in the United States as we are looking at something that would be after the 4th of July holiday before any consideration of impact.

I will say for vacationers who may have a cruise booked to depart this weekend with plans to visit the Caribbean next week, the weather might play a role in those plans.