Good Sunday morning to everyone,
It has been a hot and muggy Memorial Day Weekend and with each passing day we have seen a few showers and thunderstorms across the Western Carolinas. Today features a better chance of storms as shortwave energy that has spawned really bad weather across the Central US will move toward the Eastern US over the next 24-48 hours. You can see it clearly on the water vapor image below…
Temperatures this afternoon are going to get quite hot, in the mid-to-upper 80’s across western North Carolina. That plus increasing support in the upper levels of the atmosphere is going to allow severe storms to impact the region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed WNC in a Level 2 (Slight Risk) of severe weather for Sunday and Sunday Night.
Damaging Winds and Hail are the two biggest threats from any storms that may fire up over the next 24-36 hours and while not specifically high, a non-zero threat of tornados does exist for Sunday.
Storm Timing…
(Sunday 5 p.m.)
We currently believe of cluster of thunderstorms will move across the Tennessee Valley and into the Southern Appalachians by mid afternoon. That will serve as a good trigger for storms to fire just ahead of the mesoscale feature. Any little discrete cells that can fire just ahead of any lines are the ones that can quite ferocious and capable of rotating aloft.
(Sunday 9 p.m.)
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue through sunset with the risk of large hail and damaging winds. Also, the small window of having rotating updrafts still exists at this timeframe.
(Monday 5 a.m.)
The expectation is for activity here to reach a lull just prior to midnight but while that is occurring locally, an organized MCS feature will be getting its act together along the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley Region. This MCS will make a run for the Southern Appalachians for the early hours of Monday. There could be an additional damaging wind threat from this, especially up against the mountains should this all materialize as guidance is indicating.
Our weather team will be keeping an eye on things, we will go with a live stream at our website and social media outlets should conditions warrant…