Severe Weather Possible Late Tonight (4/2/24, 9 a.m.)

Good Tuesday morning to everyone,

First thing you probably notice is just how warm we are to begin the day. It’s that time of the year where spring weather can bring a wild variance in weather conditions. A severe weather outbreak is on schedule from the Ohio Valley down into the Southeast US.

As you can see on the water vapor image, a very strong trough is digging down into the Eastern US, there is also a lot of wind energy in the southern jet that is all coming together for a dynamic spring weather event.

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This morning’s Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has all of western North Carolina under a Level 2 of 5 (Slight Risk) for severe weather with Level 3 (Enhanced) not far to our west.

All modes of severe weather is possible. Large hail, damaging winds is the most likely threat but isolated tornadoes are also in play.

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STORM TIMELINE

From the latest data, we have come up with a general timeline in which storms are expected to impact the Foothills and Western Piedmont. As you can see on the first image, at 2 pm our region will be free of severe weather. It will be a warm day with highs in the lower 80’s with partly cloudy skies and a southwest breeze.

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By this evening at 8 pm, storms will be organizing to our southwest as jet stream energy translates toward the Southern Appalachians. The main jet will be cruising across the Tennessee Valley with a secondary enhancement of dynamics moving northeast from the Gulf Coast Region into Alabama.

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By shortly after midnight, a cluster of potential severe storms will surge toward the Western Carolinas thanks in part to the above mentioned dynamics moving northeast from the Gulf into the Southeast. The expectation is for activity to begin in our southwest zones (Polk, Rutherford) after midnight and moving into the Western Piedmont by 2-3 am.

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These kinds of setups in the spring can catch the public off guard with a heightened potential of rotating thunderstorms. This morning’s HRRR model is showing helicity (rotating, upward motion) across Alabama and Georgia late this evening. Will those continue to translate northeast overnight? We shall see!

Whatever comes from this event should be out of the area moving into Central and Eastern NC by daybreak Wednesday.

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If you haven’t already, download the Foothills Weather App for your smart phone to have a way of receiving weather information late tonight.